CapLand IntCom - 02 Dec 2025

• Stock: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U)

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: Daily

• Date Range: Apr 2025 → 2 Dec 2025

• Bars Count: ~160

• Last Traded Price: 2.33

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure

• The chart forms a broad uptrend from May → Sep, marked by:

  • Higher swing lows: 2.02 → 2.17 → 2.23 → 2.25

  • Higher swing highs: 2.20 → 2.25 → 2.37 → 2.44

• After the 2.44 top (late Oct), momentum decelerated sharply, pulling into a mild distribution range (2.27–2.40).

Key Structural Observations

• BOS (Bullish): Break above 2.25 (July) signaled transition to trending phase.

• CHoCH (Bearish):

  • Post-2.44, price failed to make a new HH → formed LH at ~2.38, shifting into mild down/sideways structure.

• Trend Momentum Decay:

  • Noticeable in Nov: shorter candle bodies, overlapping ranges, weaker follow-through → classic late-stage trend exhaustion.

Structural Summary:
Strong uptrend → slow distribution → current regime = range with bearish tilt.

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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Major Observations

• Volume spike at 2.02 (June) but small price range → absorption → institutions defending demand zone.

• Breakout from 2.25 (Aug) occurred on clean volume expansion, confirming professional involvement.

• New high at 2.44 formed on lower volume compared to 2.37 → volume divergence → early exhaustion signal.

• Recent bars (Nov–Dec) show increasing volume on down bars, low volume on up bars → distribution bias.

VPR Summary:
Smart money accumulated between 2.02–2.23, distributed from 2.37–2.44.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

• Sharp wicks below 2.17 (Sep) ≈ stop hunt → followed by strong up-move → classic liquidity grab → institutional mark-up.

Order Blocks

• Bullish OB: 2.17–2.20 (mid-Sep) → price returned here repeatedly to find demand.

• Bearish OB: 2.38–2.42 (Nov) → clear rejection zone.

Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)

• Minor FVG between 2.23–2.26 (Aug) → fully rebalanced.

Wyckoff Behaviors

• Accumulation (May–July): sideways, tests, demand absorption.

• Distribution (Nov–Dec): wide swings, failed higher-high attempts, supply absorption.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Signals

• 2.44 top produced:

  • Upper-wick rejection

  • Lower volume

  • Follow-through weakness → textbook exhaustion bar.

Continuation Patterns

• Up-leg from Aug → Sep showed multiple inside bars → breakout continuation.

Indecision Bars

• Nov cluster around 2.33–2.38 = spinning tops & dojis → classic transition zone, not trend continuation.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly chart bias: sideways with mild upward slope

• Daily: currently in range consolidation

• Confluence Zone:

  • 2.27 (daily SL) aligns with multi-week support

  • 2.38–2.44 serves as clear higher-timeframe supply

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6. Psychological / Key Levels

• 2.20 = round-number support → respected multiple times

• 2.30 = psychological magnet → current battle zone

• 2.40 = psychological resistance underneath swing high 2.44

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

High-Conviction Zones

Demand Zones (Long Bias)

1. 2.27–2.30

   • Confluence of swing low + HVN + prior demand

2. 2.20–2.23

   • Structural SL cluster + historical demand

Supply Zones (Short Bias)

1. 2.38–2.40

2. 2.44 (major swing high)

R/R Opportunities

• Long at 2.27–2.30 → TP1 2.38, TP2 2.44 → R/R ~1:2.5

• Short at 2.38–2.40 → TP 2.30 → R/R ~1:2

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8. Market Regime Classification

Current regime = RANGE → mild bearish transition
Characteristics:

• Failed HH at 2.44

• LH at 2.38

• Increasing supply volume

• Price hovering mid-range (2.30–2.35)

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Supply Dominance

• Strong selling pressure whenever price enters 2.38–2.44

• Lower closes on higher volume in mid-Nov

Demand Presence

• Buyers defend 2.27–2.30 consistently

• But weaker follow-through → suggests demand weakening

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10. Comprehensive Market Context

• REIT sector in SGX has been rotating as yields stabilize; higher-beta REITs took inflows first → CICT joined mid-cycle.

• Rotation slowing now → aligns with chart’s distribution behavior.

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Summary — Highest Conviction Observations

1. Major uptrend ended at 2.44; now in distribution.

2. 2.38–2.44 = institutional selling zone.

3. 2.27–2.30 = last major demand zone; break here flips bias firmly bearish.

4. Volume profile shows distribution → supply> demand.

5. Short-term regime = range with downward tilt.

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Forward-Looking Bias

Base case:

• Expect price to oscillate between 2.27–2.40 with bearish lean.

Bullish Trigger:

• Break & close above 2.40 with volume → retest → push to 2.44 and possibly 2.48.

Bearish Trigger:

• Break below 2.27 → opens move toward 2.20.

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Key Levels to Watch

• Support: 2.30 • 2.27 • 2.23 • 2.20

• Resistance: 2.38 • 2.40 • 2.44

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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