CapLand India - 03 Dec 2025

• Stock: CapitaLand India Trust (CY6U)

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: April 2025 → December 2025

• Bars in Range: ~180+

• Last Traded Price: 1.19

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

✔️ Structural Trend

• From April → August: clear uptrend, with rising SL → SH sequence

  • SL: 0.96 → 0.99 → 1.13

  • SH: 1.00 → 1.20 → 1.23

• From September → November: distribution-range formation

  • Triple swing highs at 1.20 (significant resistance)

  • Higher low attempts at 1.13 → 1.14, forming demand base

✔️ Break of Structure / CHoCH

• First CHoCH occurs when price failed to break past 1.20 in late September.

• Second CHoCH when price set a lower low into 1.14, confirming range.

✔️ Momentum Decay

• Note the strong rally into July–August with wide candles.

• Post-August:

  • Smaller bar ranges

  • More overlapping bars
    → Textbook indication of institutional distribution.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

✔️ High-Volume Signals

• August–September rallies into 1.20 showed volume expansion, but candles produced smaller bodies → Absorption at resistance.

• October and November sell-offs saw:

  • High volume + wide red bars → professional selling, not retail.

✔️ Clear Volume Divergence

• Price retests 1.20 three times

• But volume decreases each time → weakening demand → exhaustion.

✔️ Recent High-Volume Flush

• The large red bar near 1.15 with very high volume signals:
  → Liquidity grab + stop-hunt
  → Smart money using liquidity to accumulate.

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3. Institutional Footprints

✔️ Liquidity Grabs

• Sharp spike down to ~1.15 recently is a perfect example:

  • Sweeps resting liquidity

  • Immediately retraces upward
    → Classic institutional accumulation signature.

✔️ Order Blocks

• Bullish order block identified at 1.13–1.14

  • Price respected this zone multiple times

  • Evidence of smart money defending demand block

✔️ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

• FVG formed during July impulse move

• Price later revisited the zone → efficient market structure

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

✔️ Key Bar Patterns Observed

• Repeated rejection wicks at 1.20 → strong seller presence

• Engulfing bearish candles during distribution phase

• Hammer-like recovery candles near 1.14

  • With volume confirmation → valid reversal bars

✔️ Recent Bar-by-Bar Read

1. Strong red candle flush (stop-hunt)

2. Immediate strong green candle reclaim → bullish absorption

3. Followed by inside-bar compression → energy coiling for next move

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Higher timeframe (weekly) shows:

  • Price stalled at long-term resistance 1.20–1.23

  • Daily compression aligning with weekly supply
    → Expect volatility + potential breakout soon.

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6. Psychological Level Integration

• 1.20 = major psychological + structural level

• 1.00 earlier was strong round-number support in accumulation

• ATR shows recent moves are within normal volatility, no panic behavior.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

🎯 High-Probability Zones

Bullish High-Probability Entry Zones

• 1.13–1.14 → strong accumulation zone

• 1.17 → mid-range reclaimed level
  (Stops can be tight below 1.13)

Short-Term Bullish Targets

• 1.20 (first resistance)

• 1.23 (breakout target)

If Breakout Occurs

Measured-move projection:

• Range height: 1.23 – 1.13 = 0.10

• Breakout target = 1.23 + 0.10 = 1.33

🚫 Bearish Breakdown Levels

• A daily close below 1.13 triggers a range breakdown → next support at 1.00.

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8. Market Regime Classification

Current Regime:

➡️ Ranging / Distribution–Accumulation Transition

• Top distribution at 1.20–1.23

• But deeper structure shows accumulation at 1.13–1.14
  → Price is rotating between institutional supply and demand.

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9. Institutional Supply–Demand Zones

Supply Zone:

• 1.20–1.23 (multi-touch + absorption)

Demand Zone:

• 1.13–1.14 (accumulation block)

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10. Sector & Market Context

• REIT-like structures on SGX have seen:

  • Stable flows

  • Reduced volatility

  • Supportive macro (Singapore rates cooling toward 2026)
    → Favors accumulation patterns in yield-type counters.

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🔥 Highest Conviction Observations

1. 1.13–1.14 is a protected institutional demand zone.

Repeated absorption + many tests = strong buying.

2. 1.20 is the ceiling controlled by smart money.

Multiple failed attempts show supply remains heavy.

3. Recent liquidity sweep below 1.16 is a bullish sign, not bearish.

Stop-hunts typically precede large directional moves.

4. Volume compression suggests an upcoming expansion move.

5. Structure favors a retest of 1.20, and a potential breakout depends on follow-through volume.

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📌 Forward-Looking Bias

Baseline Bias:

➡️ Mildly Bullish within Range
As long as price holds above 1.14, buyers maintain control.

Breakout Bias:

• A strong breakout above 1.23 with expanding volume leads to 1.30–1.33.

Breakdown Bias:

• A close below 1.13 invalidates bullish thesis → move toward 1.00.

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🎯 Key Levels to Watch

Support

• 1.14 (Major)

• 1.13 (Critical – Do Not Break)

• 1.00 (Range reset)

Resistance

• 1.20 (Heavy supply)

• 1.23 (Breakout)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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