SIA Eng - 19 Dec 2025

SIA Engineering Co. Ltd. (SGX: S59)

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Approx. Date Range: May → Dec 2025
Last Traded Price: ~3.51
Bars Analyzed: ~150 trading days

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Current Regime:
Transition → Early Distribution / Range Expansion at Highs

• Primary uptrend remains structurally intact

• However, momentum decay + lower highs since the 3.81 peak

• Volume behavior signals distribution rather than accumulation

This is no longer a clean trending regime; it is post-markup digestion.

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2. Market Structure & Order Flow

Structural Mapping

• Major Swing Low (SL): ~1.87 (May)

• Higher Highs Sequence:

  • 3.28 → 3.42 → 3.64 → 3.81

• Key Higher Low (HL): ~3.35 (Oct)

Structural Events

• BOS (Bullish):

  • Clear break above 3.20–3.28 in June with expanding volume

• Momentum Decay:

  • From Oct onward: overlapping candles, shrinking real bodies

• Early CHoCH Signal (Developing):

  • Failure to hold above 3.64

  • Subsequent lower high under 3.81

Interpretation:
Institutions successfully marked price up, but are no longer aggressively defending highs.

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3. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Volume Signatures

• June–July Advance:

  • Rising volume + expanding range → Professional accumulation

• October Spike (Climactic Bar):

  • Very high volume + wide range → Effort climax

• Post-High Behavior:

  • Lower volume on rebounds

  • Volume contracts as price drifts down → Demand exhaustion

Effort vs Result

• Multiple bars near 3.70–3.80 show:

  • High effort (volume)

  • Minimal upside result
    → Classic distribution absorption

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4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts

Liquidity & Traps

• Liquidity grab above 3.64:

  • Breakout attracts late longs

  • No follow-through → immediate stalling

• Upthrust Characteristics near 3.81:

  • Push into new high

  • Weak subsequent closes

  • Failure to expand range further

Order Blocks

• Supply Order Block: 3.70–3.81

  • Last bullish push before distribution

• Demand Zone: 3.30–3.35

  • Prior HL + consolidation base

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

• Minor inefficiency left between 3.45–3.55

• Current price rotating inside this zone → price seeking balance

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5. Bar Pattern & Microstructure Read

• Post-High Bars:

  • Spinning tops + small-range candles

  • Indecision at elevated prices = professional unloading

• No Strong Bearish Engulfing Yet
  → Suggests controlled distribution, not panic

This is not breakdown behavior — it’s managed exit.

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6. Psychological & Reference Levels

Level	Significance
3.80–3.81	Absolute high, institutional sell zone
3.64	Failed breakout / polarity level
3.50–3.45	Mid-range balance (current rotation)
3.35	Key HL – structural line in the sand
3.20–3.08	Prior accumulation base

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7. High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Uptrend intact but weakening — structure holds, momentum does not

2. Distribution signatures near 3.7–3.8 confirmed by volume

3. Rebounds are corrective, not impulsive

4. 3.35 is the critical decision level for trend continuation

5. Current price is in no-edge mid-range

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8. Risk-Adjusted Trade Location Mapping (Technical Only)

Long Scenarios (Only if triggered)

• Aggressive:

  • Reclaim & hold above 3.64 with volume expansion

• Conservative:

  • Pullback to 3.30–3.35

  • Evidence of absorption (high vol, small range)

Invalidation: Daily close below 3.30

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Short / Hedge Scenarios

• Rejection at 3.64–3.70 with weak volume

• Confirmed CHoCH below 3.35

Targets:

• 3.20 → 3.08
  Stops:

• Above most recent LH

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9. Multi-Timeframe Alignment (Inference)

• Daily: Transition / distribution

• Weekly (inferred): Extended markup → consolidation

• No timeframe currently showing fresh accumulation

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10. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias: Neutral → Cautious
Market State: Awaiting resolution

Bullish only if:

• Strong reclaim of 3.64 with expansion

Bearish only if:

• Clean loss of 3.35 with follow-through

Until then, capital preservation > activity.

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Final Institutional Read

This is a professionally managed stock that has completed a clean markup phase and is now digesting supply at highs.
Retail traders chase breakouts here; institutions sell strength and wait.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  2.56%