Thursday, November 20, 2025

Capland Ascott - 20 Nov 2025

1. MARKET STRUCTURE & ORDER FLOW

Key Swing Points Marked on Chart

SH: 0.880 → 0.910 → 0.970 (major) → 0.965 (failed retry)
SL: 0.850 → 0.860 → 0.915 → 0.925

Break of Structure / CHoCH

BOS to the upside occurred when price moved above 0.910 in late September.
CHoCH occurred when the high at 0.970 failed and price couldn’t put in a higher high at 0.965 — structure flattening.

Momentum Assessment

Up-leg from Aug → Oct was clean: higher highs, shallow pullbacks.
Post-0.970: bar ranges narrowing, more overlapping candles, rise in indecision bars → momentum now decaying.

Order Flow

Institutional sell pressure around 0.965–0.970.
Consistent buying support near 0.915–0.925 — repeated tests passed.

2. ADVANCED VOLUME–PRICE RELATIONSHIP (VPR)

Key Volume Behaviors

High volume + small body around 0.965 → absorption by sellers.
Largest volume spike in early September occurred on a downward bar that failed to follow through → absorption (buying).
Volume dropping on recent up-legs → rallies are retail-driven.

Volume Divergence

Price tested 0.965 with significantly lower volume compared with the push to 0.970 → weakening buyer conviction.

Volume Clusters

Demand cluster: 0.915–0.925
Supply cluster: 0.960–0.970

3. INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINT RECOGNITION

Liquidity Grab

0.970 wick is the clearest liquidity run: stops triggered → sharp reversal.

Order Block

Bearish OB around 0.960–0.970 created from the failed breakout sequence.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Minor FVG left in mid-September at 0.925–0.930; now mostly filled → no strong imbalance left.

Displacement

No fresh strong displacement after October → confirms transition regime.

Accumulation/Distribution

Soft accumulation near 0.915–0.925
Distribution near 0.965–0.970

4. BAR PATTERN RECOGNITION

Reversal Bars

Multiple long-wick rejections at 0.965–0.970.
Several hammer-like tests at 0.915–0.925.

Continuation Bars

Inside-bar complexes around 0.935–0.945 show coiling → typical of early range formation.

Indecision Bars

Dojis in last 5–7 sessions confirm reduced directional conviction.

5. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE

(Higher Timeframe = Weekly)

Weekly trend still up, but stalling under 0.970 — a significant supply zone.
Daily currently oscillating within weekly resistance → explains chop.
Weekly support aligns with daily 0.915 — strong confluence.

6. PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS

0.900 psychological level holding for months → strong buyer response.
0.950 acting as short-term intraday pivot.

7. RISK-ADJUSTED SETUP ZONES

High Probability Buy Zone (Only if Trend Resumes)

0.915 – 0.925

Repeated tests
Strong demand response
Clear stop zone below 0.910

Risk: SL at 0.905
Reward: Target 0.950 → 0.965
R/R: 1:2 to 1:3

High Probability Sell/Short Zone (If Price Fails Again)

0.960 – 0.970

Proven supply
Weak follow-through
Offers tight stop above 0.975

Risk: SL 0.975
Reward: 0.935 → 0.925
R/R: 1:2+

8. MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION (Detailed)

Trending Signs (past)

July–Oct uptrend clean.

Ranging Signs (now)

Flat highs
Shallow higher lows
Increasing false pushes
Volume contracting

Conclusion: Range / Transition between 0.915 and 0.970.

9. SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSIS

Demand Zones

0.915–0.925
0.880 (deeper value but strong history)

Supply Zones

0.960–0.970 (major)
0.950 minor intraday)

Strongest institutional footprint: Sellers at 0.970.

10. MARKET CONTEXT (SECTOR / ROTATION)

REITs in SGX are in a mild recovery phase due to expectations of rate stabilization.
Hospitality REITs (like Ascott) benefit from seasonal year-end travel demand but face rate-sensitive macro conditions.

FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS & KEY LEVELS TO WATCH

Bias:

Neutral with downside tilt unless 0.950 reclaims with volume.

Key Levels:

Support: 0.925, 0.915
Resistance: 0.950, 0.965, 0.970
Breakout trigger: >0.970 with strong volume
Breakdown trigger: <0.915 closes with volume

If price holds 0.925 → expect re-test of 0.950 / 0.965.

If price loses 0.915 → expect deeper pullback to 0.880.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 6.52%%