Friday, November 28, 2025

Mapletree Log 28 Nov 2025

MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST (M44U) – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Period observed: Apr → 28 Nov 2025
Bars analysed: ~160
Last traded price: 1.32 SGD

1. Market Regime Classification (Lead Section)

Current regime: Transition → Early Uptrend

The chart shows a multi-month accumulation base, followed by:

A CHoCH in mid-June,
A steady series of HL–HH structures forming from July to November,
A recent pullback from 1.37 back into 1.30-1.32, now pushing back upward.

The market is not in strong markup, but not ranging either.
This is a transition into controlled bullish structure, driven by increasing demand.

2. Highest Conviction Observations (Summary Before Deep Dive)

(1) Strong demand zone at 1.22 – 1.24

Repeated absorptions, low-volume tests, and multiple HLs confirm institutional accumulation.

(2) 1.30 → 1.34 is the key supply belt

Price has repeatedly stalled here. Every breakout attempt required volume expansion.

(3) The 1.37 breakout was poorly sustained

Wide-range candle but no follow-through, showing lack of strong institutional chase.

(4) Current structure forming a higher low at 1.30

Demand is stepping in again → bullish continuation likely if volume expands above 1.33–1.34.

(5) Volume signature suggests Smart Money quietly building positions

Repeated high-volume absorption during selloffs, but no panic volume on retracements.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Macro Structure

Major swing lows (SL): 1.07 → 1.08 → 1.13 → 1.14 → 1.23 → 1.24 → current ~1.30
Major swing highs (SH): 1.16 → 1.22 → 1.29 → 1.30 → 1.37

Key structural events

Event	Description
BOS #1 (June)	Price breaks above 1.16 – first confirmation demand dominating
CHoCH (July)	Higher low at 1.13 and breakout to 1.22
BOS #2 (Oct)	1.29 → 1.37 breakout
Current status	Pullback from 1.37 forming HL around 1.30–1.32

Trend is clean uptrend with healthy pullbacks.

Trend Momentum

Early trend: compact candles, overlapping → accumulation
Mid trend: strong candles July–Sep
Late trend (Nov): momentum slowing, wider wicks, supply showing at 1.34–1.37

Buyers still in control, but not aggressively chasing highs.

4. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key observations

Absorption

Large red candles in Apr–May came with large wicks and deep absorption → institutional accumulation.
At 1.22-1.24, repeated high-volume but small-range bars = strong hands accumulating.

Volume Dry-Up

During pullbacks from 1.29 → 1.24, volume declined significantly
→ retracement not driven by strong selling.

Volume Expansion

Breakout toward 1.37 had clear volume expansion, but single-day spike only → not sustained.

Overall VPR conclusion

Demand > Supply, but supply thickens at 1.34–1.37.
Perfect environment for step-wise markup, not explosive breakout.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Order Blocks

Bullish OB at 1.22–1.24
Last down-moves before strong rallies. Market repeatedly returns to this zone → clear demand.

Liquidity Grabs

At 1.07 and 1.08, deep spikes followed by immediate reversals = classic sell-side liquidity sweep.

Fair Value Gaps

Small FVGs visible in:
- July rally (1.13 → 1.22)
- September rally (1.24 → 1.29)
  These FVGs were mitigated on pullbacks, indicating controlled institutional flows.

Displacement Moves

1.24 → 1.30 in late Sept was a displacement run, strong direction, shallow pullback.

Smart money is active, but not aggressive. Steady accumulation pattern.

6. Bar Pattern Analysis

Reversal Bars

Multiple hammer-type reversals at:
- 1.13
- 1.14
- 1.24
  These coincide with demand zones + volume drops → high-quality reversals.

Continuation Bars

August–October rally contains multiple inside bar clusters → bullish compression → breakouts.

Indecision Bars

Near 1.34–1.37 supply, more doji-type bars appear → confirms thick supply overhead.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Although only daily chart visible:

Weekly likely forming multi-month base breakout at 1.30.
Daily supports this with HL structure + volume validation.

Strong confluence around 1.30 as support on both daily + weekly.

8. Psychological Levels

1.30 → largest magnet level, both support and resistance
1.35 / 1.37 → supply zone, tested twice
1.20 → structural demand zone if deeper correction happens

9. Supply & Demand Zones

Demand zones (high conviction)

1.22 – 1.24 (primary institutional demand)
1.30 – 1.32 (current support forming)

Supply zones

1.34 – 1.37 (heavy supply stack)
Repeated rejection, wide wicks, and failed follow-through.

10. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Bullish scenario (higher probability)

Entry: 1.31–1.32
Stop: Below 1.29 (structural invalidation)
Target 1: 1.34
Target 2: 1.37
Target 3: 1.40 (if breakout sustained)

RR ≈ 1:2.6 to 1:4.0

Bearish scenario (if 1.29 breaks)

Entry: Break below 1.29 with volume
Target: 1.24
Invalidation: Above 1.32

But probability lower given accumulation behaviour.

11. Forward-Looking Bias

Bullish bias with caution

Strong structure
Demand stepping in
Good HL formation
Controlled volume behaviour

But need a clean break above 1.34 to retest 1.37 and move toward 1.40.

Key levels to watch

Support: 1.30
Demand: 1.24
Resistance: 1.34
Breakout line: 1.37

If 1.34 breaks with volume → high probability continuation.

If 1.29 breaks → retest of 1.24 likely.

12. Final Summary (Actionable)

Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) is showing institutional accumulation, strong HL construction, and low-volume retracements. The current pullback into 1.30–1.32 is behaving like a bullish retest, and upside continuation is favoured as long as 1.29 holds.

Forward bias:
➜ Bullish continuation toward 1.34 → 1.37, with potential for a breakout to 1.40 if volume expands.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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