Starhill Global REIT (P40U), Daily Chart, Jan–Nov 2025
(Last traded price 0.580.)
Market Regime Classification
Regime: Trending → Mild Distribution → Sideways Compression
The chart shows a clear shift:
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Feb–Aug 2025: Strong uptrend with progressive higher highs/higher lows.
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Sep–Oct 2025: Trend continues but with weaker momentum, overlapping candles, and lower-volume pushes → momentum decay.
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Nov 2025: Price trapped between 0.560–0.590, forming a tight range = early distribution or sideways compression before next impulse.
High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)
1. Strong Institutional Accumulation Zone at 0.455–0.480
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The repeated tests of 0.455 (Apr panic low) were met with heavy volume absorption.
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The long lower wicks + high volume + tight spread = strong hands absorbing retail capitulation.
2. Clean Trend Structure: BOS at 0.510 → Impulse to 0.550 → 0.580 → 0.590
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Each breakout level showed volume expansion, confirming institutional participation.
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Pullbacks remained shallow (23–38% of swings), a classic signature of institutional trending regime.
3. Momentum Decay After 0.590
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The highs around 0.580–0.590 show:
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Smaller candle bodies
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Lower volume
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More overlapping bars
→ Clear signal that demand is weakening and supply is increasing.
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4. Liquidity Grab at 0.590
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The recent spike to 0.590 swept liquidity above the prior swing high.
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The rejection back to mid-range (0.570–0.580) indicates a stop-hunt → smart money likely offloading.
5. Current Structure: Range-Bound 0.560–0.590
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This range is forming right under resistance.
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Volume is declining → coiling energy.
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A breakout requires clear volume expansion above 0.590, otherwise a false breakout is likely.
Bar-by-Bar Structural Map
Major Swing Lows (SL)
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SL1: 0.455 (Apr capitulation low)
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SL2: 0.480 (May re-accumulation)
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SL3: 0.495 (Jul continuation low)
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SL4: 0.530 (Aug pullback)
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SL5: 0.555–0.560 (Oct higher low cluster)
Major Swing Highs (SH)
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SH1: 0.515 (Feb)
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SH2: 0.510 → BOS (Apr recovery)
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SH3: 0.550 (Aug breakout)
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SH4: 0.580 (Sep breakout)
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SH5: 0.590 (Oct/Nov liquidity sweep)
Market Structure Notes
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Structure remains bullish above 0.560.
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A daily close below 0.560 = CHoCH, signaling a possible shift into distribution.
Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Absorption Zones
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0.455–0.480: High volume, small candle spreads → accumulation.
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Aug pullback to 0.530: Volume contraction → lack of selling pressure → continuation move.
Volume Divergence
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From 0.580 → 0.590, price made new highs while volume declined → weakening demand.
Volume Expansion on Breakouts
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Breakouts at 0.510, 0.550, 0.580 showed healthy volume, confirming real orders.
Institutional Footprint Recognition
Liqudity Grab
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The wick above 0.590 is a textbook stop-run engineered by smart money:
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Price swept above prior SH.
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Immediately rejected.
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Closed back inside structure.
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Order Blocks
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Bullish OB: 0.530–0.540 (Aug).
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Bearish OB: 0.580–0.590 (Nov supply zone).
Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
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Minor FVGs filled during Jul–Sep trend; no large unfilled gaps remain → trend was structurally efficient.
Bar Pattern Analysis
Reversal Signals
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A small cluster of spinning tops near 0.590 = indecision at resistance.
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No meaningful bearish engulfing yet → sellers not fully aggressive.
Continuation Signals
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Multiple inside bars during Jul–Aug pullbacks → energy coil → breakout continuation.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
(Higher timeframe inferred from daily structure)
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Weekly shows resistance at 0.600, meaning daily compression under 0.590 is normal.
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A weekly close above 0.600 = large timeframe BOS → 0.640 becomes next target.
Psychological + Structural Levels
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0.600 = major psychological & structural ceiling.
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0.560 = strong daily support.
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0.530 = prior breakout level, strong HTF demand.
Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping
Bullish Setup (High-Probability)
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Buy Zone: 0.560–0.565
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Stop: Below 0.550
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Target 1: 0.590
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Target 2: 0.600–0.610
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RR: ~1:2.5 to 1:3
Bearish Setup (Only on Breakdown)
Trigger only if Daily CHoCH confirmed:
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Sell Trigger: Break & close below 0.560
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Target: 0.530
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Stop: Above 0.575
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RR: ~1:2.2
Forward-Looking Bias
Primary Bias: Mildly Bullish
As long as 0.560 holds, the market remains in a bullish structure despite momentum fatigue.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| 0.590–0.600 | Major supply & liquidity resistance |
| 0.580 | Mid-range control price |
| 0.560 | Structural support (must hold) |
| 0.530 | Strong HTF demand if deeper pullback |
Expected Path
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Base case: Consolidation 0.560–0.590, followed by a breakout attempt.
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Breakout confirmation requires strong volume above 0.600.
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Weak breakout → likely trap, leading to retest of 0.560.
Conclusion
Starhill Global REIT remains in a controlled uptrend but is currently in late-stage trend compression. Institutional accumulation is clear at lower levels, but current price action shows signs of profit-taking and supply absorption near 0.590–0.600.
Hold or buy dips (0.560 area) remains the higher-probability strategy. A strong breakout above 0.600 will transition the chart into an impulsive expansion phase.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 6.38%
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