Fraser & Neave Ltd. (SGX: F99) — 1D Chart (Mar–Nov 2025)
Last traded price: S$1.50
1. Market Structure & Regime Classification
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Current regime: Trending-to-Ranging transition.
After a clean uptrend from the April low (S$1.06) to August high (S$1.54), price has entered a horizontal consolidation band (S$1.41–S$1.54). -
Structure map:
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Swing Lows (SL): 1.06 → 1.22 → 1.36 → 1.39 → 1.41 (progressively higher).
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Swing Highs (SH): 1.35 → 1.27 → 1.54 → 1.51 → 1.54 (higher-high sequence intact).
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No decisive Break of Structure (BOS) below S$1.36, implying trend bias remains mildly bullish.
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Change of Character (CHoCH): None yet; a daily close below S$1.41 would confirm transition to range-bound or corrective phase.
2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
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Volume surge in July: Expansion confirmed institutional entry during breakout above S$1.27 (clear displacement candle with high volume).
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August top (S$1.54): Wide-range bar on high volume — classical buying climax with subsequent reaction down to S$1.36 (automatic reaction).
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Recent consolidation:
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Volume contracting around S$1.41–S$1.50 → Volume Dry-Up, suggesting preparation for next breakout attempt.
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No high-volume sell-off → supply remains limited.
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3. Institutional Footprints
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Order Block:
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Bullish order block around S$1.36–S$1.41, representing the last down bar before the August rally.
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Recent reactions confirm this area as institutional demand.
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Liquidity Grabs:
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Early October dip to S$1.41 swept resting liquidity before rebounding — classic spring-type test.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between S$1.44–S$1.46 remains partially unfilled; acting as a magnet for price retests.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Key reversals:
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April: Hammer near S$1.06 with capitulation volume — end of markdown.
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July: Wide-range bullish engulfing → start of markup.
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August: Shooting star at S$1.54 → short-term distribution.
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Continuation structure:
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Multiple inside bars since October → volatility compression, energy build-up for breakout.
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Measured move potential: If breakout above 1.54 confirms, projected target ≈ S$1.62–S$1.65.
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5. Confluence & Psychological Levels
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Round-number behavior: Reactions observed around S$1.50, a psychological barrier.
Consistent rejections but tightening ranges indicate absorption. -
Sector alignment: F&N often tracks consumer staples sentiment; with regional defensives recovering, rotational flows could support continuation.
6. Risk–Reward Framework
| Parameter | Level (SGD) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1.51–1.52 | Breakout confirmation above range |
| Stop-loss | 1.40 | Below structure low / order block |
| Take-profit 1 | 1.62 | Measured move target |
| Take-profit 2 | 1.68–1.70 | Historical resistance zone |
| R:R Ratio | ≈ 1:2.5 | Satisfactory institutional-grade setup |
7. Forward Bias & Key Levels
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Bullish bias maintained while above S$1.41.
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Watch for:
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Volume expansion on any breakout above S$1.54 — validates institutional continuation.
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Failure retest (rejection + volume spike) → signals short-term distribution phase.
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Contraction at highs without follow-through → potential absorption before another leg higher.
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Summary:
Fraser & Neave (F99) shows a controlled accumulation pattern after its strong mid-year markup. The S$1.41–S$1.54 band represents a high-probability reaccumulation range, with early signs of institutional absorption.
Bias remains bullish toward S$1.62–S$1.70, contingent on a volume-backed breakout above S$1.54. A daily close below S$1.41 would invalidate this thesis and shift focus to S$1.36 support retest.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.67%
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