ParkwayLife Rei - 19 Nov 2025

Parkway Life REIT (C2PU) 

Timeframe: 1D
Date Range: ~Mar 2025 → 19 Nov 2025
Last Traded Price: 3.96
Bars: ~180+

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1. Market Regime Classification

Regime: Late-stage Distribution → Downtrend

• Series of lower highs: 4.44 → 4.20 → 4.07 → 3.96

• Weak bids, persistent selling pressure

• Gradual but consistent volume increase on down-moves, especially October → mid-Nov

• No meaningful absorption at lows → supply still dominant

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2. Highest-Conviction Observations (Institutional Footprints)

(1) Major Lower High After Upthrust at 4.44 (Sept)

• The surge into 4.44 had climactic volume with long upper wicks.

• Classic Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) signature.

• Immediate rejection → confirms smart money selling into strength.

(2) Failed Retest at 4.20 (Oct)

• A weak rally attempt after the initial drop.

• Bar structure:

  • Narrow bodies

  • Weak volume expansion

  • No follow-through

• Indicates lack of institutional demand → confirms distribution.

(3) Key Swing Structure Breakdown at 4.07

• Break below 4.07 was clean, with volume expansion → real supply.

• This was the Change of Character (CHoCH) that transitioned regime from range → trend down.

(4) Current Zone (3.96) Shows No Absorption

• Price drifts downward with:

  • Small ranges + steady volume → no absorption

  • No stopping volume → supply not exhausted

• Leaves the door open for continuation toward 3.90 → 3.78.

(5) Liquidity Below 3.92 and 3.98 Now Exposed

• Prior swing lows: 3.92, 3.98, 3.98, 4.00

• These levels held repeatedly for months (Apr → Aug).

• Price has now broken below all of them, exposing liquidity pools below.

• Smart money historically hunts liquidity → expect tests of 3.90, 3.78.

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3. Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure

• Confirmed downtrend

  • Lower Highs: 4.44 → 4.20 → 4.07

  • Lower Lows: 4.07 → 3.98 → 3.96 → heading for 3.90

Breaks of Structure (BOS)

• BOS1: 4.44 → 4.07 break

• BOS2: 4.07 → sub-4.00 breakdown

• BOS3: Current break under 3.98 confirms continuation

Change of Character (CHoCH)

• CHoCH at 4.07 in early Oct was the key turning point

• Marked the switch from sideways → downward trend

Momentum Assessment

• Bar ranges shrinking on up-moves → indicates weak buying

• Expanded ranges on down-moves → institutional pressure

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4. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Supply Dominance Signals

• Rising volume + falling price (Oct–Nov) → real selling, not retail

• No “effort vs result” failure yet → supply still effective

• No absorption bars (high volume but flat candles) → institutions not accumulating

Divergences

• New lows forming on increasing volume → continuation signal, not reversal

Critical Volume Events

• Volume spike at 4.44 → climactic distribution

• Volume uptick again during the 4.07 breakdown → displacement move

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5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

• False rally above 4.40 → stop run → reversal

• Classic UTAD structure

Order Blocks

• Bearish OB near 4.20–4.25 created by institutional selling

• This block rejected all October rallies

Fair Value Gaps

• FVG created during breakdown from 4.07 → 3.98

• Expect future rallies to stall at 4.05–4.10 region

Displacement Moves

• Sharp selling waves at 4.20 and 4.07 → institutional confirmation

• Current sequence → controlled markdown phase

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6. Psychological & Key Levels

Immediate Levels

• 3.96 → last close

• 3.90 → minor psychological level

• 3.88–3.78 → stronger liquidity zone (May low)

Major Liquidity Pools

• 3.92

• 3.98

• 4.00

The market is now trading below all these levels, meaning they now act as resistance.

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7. High-Probability Zones (Actionable)

Bearish Continuation Zone

Below 3.96 → Target 3.90 → 3.78

• Trend is bearish

• No stopping volume

• Liquidity sits lower

Reversal Probability

Low unless:

• A stopping volume spike appears

• A wide-range bullish bar closes above 4.00

• Volume dries up completely at the lows

Potential Short-Term Reaction Zone

If buyers step in, the first resistance = 4.00–4.05.

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8. Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias: Bearish continuation

• Market in markdown phase

• Supply in control

• Prior support zones broken

• No absorption or accumulation evidence

Key Levels to Watch

• 3.90 (next liquidity)

• 3.78 (structural low + high-probability test)

• 4.00–4.05 (sell zone on rallies)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   3.76%