Friday, December 12, 2025

YZJ Fin Holding - 12 Dec 2025

1. Chart Setup & Context

Stock: Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd
Ticker: SGX: YF8
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Analysis Period: Apr 2025 → Dec 2025
Approx. Bars: ~170 daily bars
Last Traded Price: 0.440

2. Market Regime Classification (Lead With This)

Current Regime:
👉 Transition → Early Downtrend (Distribution Resolution Phase)

Prior strong uptrend has clearly ended
Market has shifted into lower highs + expanding downside follow-through
Volume behavior suggests distribution, not accumulation

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

A. Primary Structure Evolution

Phase 1 – Accumulation Base (Apr–Jun)

Range: 0.310 – 0.345
Overlapping bars, muted ranges
Volume contraction → institutional absorption
No follow-through on downside attempts → strong hands building inventory

Phase 2 – Mark-Up / Displacement (Jul–Sep)

Clean BOS above ~0.345
Series of HH + HL
Wide-range bullish bars with expanding volume
Textbook institutional displacement leg
Peak high: ~0.560

Phase 3 – Distribution (Sep–Oct)

Failure to extend above 0.560
Repeated upper-wick rejections
High volume but diminishing upside progress
→ Effort > Result = Distribution

Phase 4 – Structural Breakdown (Oct–Nov)

CHoCH confirmed below ~0.500
Subsequent BOS down
Rallies fail earlier → sellers in control

B. Current Structure (Most Important)

Lower High sequence: 0.56 → 0.53 → 0.50 → 0.48
Lower Low progression: 0.48 → 0.46 → 0.44
Trend bias now bearish until proven otherwise

4. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

High volume + small real bodies near 0.52–0.56
→ Institutional distribution zone
Breakdown below 0.48 came with volume expansion
→ Valid bearish continuation
Recent down bars show consistent volume, not drying up
→ Sellers not finished

⚠️ No meaningful volume climax yet on the downside → downtrend incomplete

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

A. Liquidity Events

Sharp downside wick near ~0.415
→ Stop-run + short-term liquidity grab
Follow-through weak → reactive bounce only, not accumulation

B. Order Blocks

Bearish Order Block:
0.515 – 0.535
(Last bullish candles before strong sell-off)
→ Major supply zone

C. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Inefficiency left between 0.47 – 0.49
Price respected upper boundary → bearish acceptance

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal / Exhaustion Signals

Multiple shooting-star / long-upper-wick bars near 0.56
No bullish engulfing on recent pullbacks
Down bars closing near lows → bearish control

Continuation Behavior

Pullbacks are shallow and brief
No multi-bar basing → no re-accumulation

7. Psychological & Key Levels

Level	Significance
0.560	Major distribution high
0.520–0.535	Institutional supply
0.480	Former support → resistance
0.440	Current decision level
0.415	Liquidity sweep low
0.400 / 0.385	Next structural downside targets

8. High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)

Trend has flipped from mark-up to markdown (CHoCH confirmed)
Distribution clearly occurred between 0.52–0.56
Current decline shows acceptance, not panic selling
No bullish volume divergence yet
Bounces are corrective, not impulsive

9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Framework (Technical Only)

A. Short / Sell-Rally Bias (Preferred)

Sell Zone:

0.480 – 0.500 (prior structure + FVG)

Invalidation:

Daily close above 0.515

Targets:

TP1: 0.415
TP2: 0.385–0.400

R:R: ~1:2.5 to 1:3

B. Long Setup (ONLY IF Conditions Met)

Requires:

Climactic sell volume
Bullish engulfing or spring with follow-through
Holding above 0.415

Without these → no long edge

10. Multi-Timeframe Alignment (Daily → Weekly)

Daily structure aligns with weekly distribution
No higher-timeframe support until ~0.38–0.40
Trend alignment favors patience, not anticipation

11. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels to Watch

Bias:
👉 Bearish to Neutral, until proven otherwise

What would change the bias:

Strong bullish displacement above 0.500
Volume-confirmed reclaim of 0.515
Formation of higher low + BOS up

Until then:
This is a sell-rally / capital-preservation environment, not accumulation.

Bottom Line (Institutional Lens)

YF8 has completed a full accumulation → mark-up → distribution cycle.
The market is now resolving downward, with no structural or volume evidence of renewed accumulation yet.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 7.95%

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Aztech Global - 11 Dec 2025

Aztech Global Ltd (SGX: 8AZ), Daily timeframe, Apr–Dec 2025, last traded price 0.625.

📌 MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION — Ranging With Bearish Drift

Aztech is in a mature lateral distribution range between 0.620–0.705, with a slow bearish slope emerging from early October onward.
Volume is declining → signaling loss of demand, no strong accumulation, and no institutional sponsorship.

📌 TOP 5 INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE OBSERVATIONS

Major Resistance Band 0.685–0.705 is repeatedly rejected with decreasing volume → classic distribution top.
Support 0.650 failed in October, turning into supply → bearish CHoCH.
Liquidity sweep at 0.620 in early Nov shows no institutional absorption → weak hands, not accumulation.
Current micro-range 0.620–0.640 is tightening with volume compression, suggesting an upcoming volatility expansion.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) remain unfilled at 0.660–0.685 zone → confirms inefficiency driven by earlier sell programs.

1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Swing Structure

SL: 0.530 → 0.550 → 0.610 → 0.650 → 0.620
SH: 0.685 → 0.690 → 0.705 → 0.700 → 0.690

Structure since August shows:

Lower highs forming (0.705 → 0.700 → 0.690)
Lower lows forming (0.650 → 0.625)

➡️ Market structure shifting bearish (CHoCH at 0.660 break).

Break of Structure (BOS)

BOS down at 0.650 (September end) → start of bearish progression.
BOS down at 0.625 (November) → confirms sellers in control.

Momentum Decay

Bar ranges compress from Aug (wide, impulsive) → Oct–Dec (tight, noisy).
Overlapping bars indicate supply persistence and weak demand.

2. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key VPR Notes

High volume near 0.685–0.705 with shallow closes → absorption by sellers.
Declining volume during dips → lack of aggressive buyers.
Low volume drifts lower → classic distribution unwinding.

Critical Observations

0.620 low (Nov) printed on moderate volume, not capitulation →
❌ no accumulation
✔️ continuation weakness
Volume clusters at 0.650 show failed attempts to reclaim support.

3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

0.705 and 0.700 acted as liquidity magnets before sharp reversals → engineered stop hunts.

Order Blocks

Bearish order block at 0.685–0.705 remains unviolated.
Price respected OB → institutional sellers defending.

Fair Value Gaps

FVG from 0.660–0.685 gap down remains open → suggests bearish imbalance left behind.

Displacement Moves

Sell-off from 0.705 → 0.660 had strong displacement — no bid support.

➡️ Institutional side: net bearish.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Patterns

Multiple upper-wick bars at 0.700 area → supply tail signatures.
No meaningful bullish engulfing since early September.

Continuation Patterns

Numerous inside bars in Nov–Dec → energy compression before a larger leg.

Indecision Bars

Spinning tops around 0.630–0.640 reflect a pre-breakdown equilibrium, not bullish.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly structure:

Lower highs since Q2
Weekly rejection wicks at 0.705
Weekly support around 0.600–0.620

Daily range aligns with weekly distribution:
➡️ No higher timeframe buy signal.

6. Psychological Level Integration

0.600 = major psychological magnet
0.650 = earlier midpoint, now resistance
0.700 = round-number trap for retail longs

ATR compression → volatility expansion incoming.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

High-Probability Zones

Zone Type	Price Level	Action
Short Re-entry	0.650–0.660	OB + FVG + structural supply
Breakdown Trigger	<0.620	Vacuum below → target 0.595
Bullish Validation Only	>0.685	Clears supply wall; opens 0.705

Targets

If breakdown: 0.600 → 0.585
If reclaim 0.660: 0.685 then 0.705

Invalidation

For bulls → breakdown below 0.620
For bears → reclaim above 0.660

8. Market Regime Classification

✔️ Ranging / Late Distribution → Bearish Transition Stage

Characteristics:

Lower highs
Failed demand tests
Supply pressure dominating
No accumulation signatures

9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Demand Zones

0.620 = weak demand (tested twice with weak bounce)
0.600 = stronger, but likely first magnet before real buyers appear

Supply Zones

0.650–0.660 strong
0.685–0.705 extremely strong

Effort vs result:

Large effort near 0.700 → poor upward progress → supply dominance.

10. Market Context

Aztech is a small-mid cap SGX electronics exporter → sensitive to:

Global consumer electronics cycle
USD/SGD strength
China manufacturing trends
No catalyst-driven spikes recently → purely technical drift.

📌 FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS

Primary Bias: Bearish within range

Unless 0.660 is reclaimed, the dominant path is:

➡️ 0.625 → 0.620 test → 0.600 liquidity zone

Key Levels to Watch

0.660 — bull reclaim threshold
0.620 — breakdown trigger
0.600 — likely magnet
0.685 — only above here turns bullish

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

HC Surgical - 10 Dec 2025

HC Surgical Specialists Ltd (SGX: 1B1) — Daily Chart Analysis

Chart Timeframe: 1D
Visible Date Range: Sep 2024 – Dec 2025
Last Traded Price: ~0.340
Recent Swing High: ~0.375
Recent Swing Low: ~0.325 (minor), 0.290–0.300 (major structural base)

🔎 1. Current Market Regime

→ Transition from Uptrend to Range / Distribution

Strong impulsive uptrend from 0.270 → 0.375.
Since Oct–Nov: lower highs + overlapping bars + volume contraction → classic distribution/ranging regime.
No confirmed bearish BOS yet on higher timeframe, but bullish momentum has clearly decayed.

📐 2. Market Structure & Order Flow

Key Structural Levels

Major Swing Low (SL): ~0.270–0.290 → institutional accumulation base.
Higher High (HH): 0.375 → trend peak.
Current Lower High (LH): ~0.355–0.360 → confirms loss of bullish control.
Range Support: 0.325–0.330
Range Resistance: 0.355–0.360

Structure Read

Uptrend valid until 0.325 breaks with displacement.
Failure swings near 0.360 = supply dominance.
No CHoCH back to bullish yet.

📊 3. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Institutional Signatures

Aug & Sep volume spikes + modest upside follow-through → absorption / professional accumulation.
Rally to 0.375 occurred on expanding volume → valid institutional markup.
Post-peak: volume declining while price drifts → distribution, not panic selling.

Effort vs Result

Recent bars show moderate volume + small real bodies:
- = balanced order flow
- = neither strong accumulation nor aggressive distribution currently.

🧠 4. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grab: Minor stop runs above 0.360, followed by immediate rejection → retail breakout trap.
Order Block: Last bearish block near 0.355–0.360.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Small inefficiency remains around 0.345–0.350 → price currently reacting inside it.
Wyckoff Phase: Late Phase D → E transition risk if 0.325 fails.

🕯 5. Bar Pattern Recognition

At 0.375:
- Long upper wicks + reduced follow-through → exhaustion + supply entry.
Recent sessions:
- Inside-bar clusters + spinning tops near 0.335–0.345 → energy compression.
No bullish engulfing at support yet → buyers not showing urgency.

🧭 6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily: Range compression.
Weekly (inferred):
- Still structurally bullish unless 0.300 breaks.
Best signals will come from:
- Daily breakdown → weekly trend invalidation, or
- Daily breakout → weekly continuation confirmation.

🧠 7. Psychological & Volatility Levels

Psychological Magnet: 0.350
Round Support Zone: 0.300
ATR Behavior: Volatility contracted after rally → expansion pending.

✅ 8. High-Probability Trade Zones (If Trading)

🟢 Bullish Continuation Setup

Trigger: Daily close above 0.360 with volume expansion
Stop: Below 0.335
Targets:
- T1: 0.375
- T2: 0.395–0.405 (measured move extension)
R:R: ~1:3

🔴 Bearish Breakdown Setup

Trigger: Daily displacement below 0.325
Stop: Above 0.350
Targets:
- T1: 0.305
- T2: 0.290
R:R: ~1:2.5

🧬 9. Institutional Supply & Demand

Demand Zone: 0.290–0.310
Supply Zone: 0.355–0.375
Current price is mid-range → lowest edge environment for swing traders.

🧩 10. Highest-Conviction Observations

✅ Uptrend completed a full markup cycle into 0.375.
✅ Momentum decay + lower highs confirm active distribution.
✅ 0.325 is the line separating bullish continuation vs structural failure.
✅ Current candles show compression → volatility expansion imminent.
✅ Institutional activity was heavy at 0.29–0.31 and again at 0.36–0.375.

📈 11. Forward-Looking Bias

Short-Term Bias: Neutral → Breakout-dependent
Bullish only if: Volume-supported reclaim of 0.360+
Bearish only if: Clean breakdown below 0.325

🎯 Key Levels to Watch

Resistance: 0.355 → 0.375
Support: 0.325 → 0.300
Decision Zone: 0.340–0.350 (current price)

Friday, December 05, 2025

LHN - 05 Dec 2025

LHN Limited (41O) — Daily Chart

Timeframe: 1D
Date Range: ~Apr 2025 → 5 Dec 2025
Bars Analyzed: ~160
Last Traded Price: 0.690

1. Market Regime Classification (Current State)

LHN is currently in a transition → early accumulation regime after a sharp markdown from 1.08.
Key signatures:

Selling pressure weakening (shorter red bar ranges).
Volume tapering into late November → early December (possible absorption).
Sideways base forming around 0.63 – 0.69.

Bias: Early signs of accumulation but no confirmed reversal yet.

2. Highest Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Major Structural Top Identified at 1.080 With Clear Distribution

The wide-range upthrust into 1.08 followed by immediate failure = institutional offloading.

2. Repeated Attempts to Hold the 0.775–0.780 Zone Failed → Confirming BOS Down

This was a key CHoCH → BOS in early September.

3. Current Base Between 0.63–0.69 Shows Absorption

Multiple small-range bars with declining volume = strong hands absorbing supply.

4. Volume Spike in Late Oct / Early Nov Was Followed by Poor Upward Result

High effort → poor result = persistent supply.

5. Near-term liquidity pool sits above 0.715–0.730

This is the first upside magnet if price can sustain above 0.70.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Primary Swing Structure

SH (Major): 1.080
SH (Prior): 0.915
SL: 0.775 → 0.780 → current base 0.63 region

Break of Structure Events

BOS Down:
- Break below 0.775 (Aug)
- Break below 0.780 (Sep)
- Confirms transition into a downtrend

CHoCH Attempts:

Mid-Oct bounce looked like a CHoCH attempt but failed due to lack of volume follow-through.

Trend Momentum Decay:

Large, decisive red bars early in the decline.
Recently → small overlapping bars = sell momentum weakening.

4. Volume-Price Relationship Analysis (VPR)

Key Signatures:

High volume + wide spread around 1.08
→ distribution / exit liquidity for institutions.
Low volume drift downward (Nov)
→ selling exhaustion, potential accumulation.
Volume divergence
- Price made lower lows (0.64)
- But volume decreased
  → bearish momentum fading.
Early Dec small-range up bars on slightly higher volume
→ early accumulation footprints.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

Wick beyond 0.775 during August pullback = classic stop-run before further markdown.

Order Blocks

Bearish OB: 1.02–1.08 (strong selling zone)
Bullish OB Candidate: 0.63–0.66 (current absorption)

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

FVG on the run from 0.90 → 1.08 (likely to be filled only in a major cyclical reversal)

Displacement

Strong displacement down from 0.90 → 0.75
No similar displacement upward yet → bulls not in control.

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

Several hammer-like bars around 0.64–0.68
→ BUT most on low volume → weak conviction.

Continuation Patterns

Series of lower-high compressions in Oct → textbook bearish continuation.

Indecision Bars

Multiple dojis at current base
→ typical near accumulation/support zones.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly Chart:
- Shows a clear markdown from 1.08.
- Weekly volume basing around ~0.65 suggests mid-term accumulation.
Daily Chart:
- Matches: transition → early accumulation.

Confluence supports bottoming attempts, not a confirmed reversal.

8. Psychological Levels

0.700 = near-term psychological barrier.
0.750 = former support → now resistance.
0.600 = major downside psychological level if base fails.

9. Supply/Demand Imbalance Zones

Demand

0.63–0.66 = absorption zone
Signs of strong hands accumulating small quantities.

Supply

0.70–0.73: Light supply, first liquidity magnet
0.75–0.78: Heavy supply where prior supports flipped to resistance
0.90+: Major distribution area

10. Key Catalytic Levels (Actionable Zones)

Upside Key Levels

Level	Significance
0.700	Break → unlocks short-term momentum
0.715–0.730	First liquidity cluster; common mean-reversion target
0.775–0.780	Heavy distribution; requires strong volume to reclaim
0.915	Macro recovery target if trend reversal forms

Downside Key Levels

Level	Significance
0.660	Base of current absorption
0.630	Critical support; break = continuation down
0.600	Psychological round number + liquidity pool

11. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Most Probable Short-Term Scenario

Slow grind upward toward 0.700 – 0.720 if current absorption continues.

Bullish Setup

Entry: Break + hold above 0.700 with volume > 20-day average
Stop: Below 0.660
Targets:
- T1: 0.720
- T2: 0.750
- T3: 0.780
RR: ~1:2.5 to 1:3

Bearish Setup

Invalidation level: Break below 0.630
Target: 0.600 → 0.575 zone

12. Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias:

Neutral → Slightly bullish, pending confirmation above 0.70.

Why?

Selling exhaustion
Absorption at base
Declining volatility
Improving bar structure

Key Trigger to Confirm Reversal:

Daily close above 0.720 with expanding volume.

Summary (Ultra-Concise)

LHN has moved from distribution → markdown → early accumulation.
Base building at 0.63–0.69 with absorption.
First bullish trigger at 0.700; momentum improves only above 0.720.
Heavy supply zones remain at 0.75–0.78 and 0.90+.
Bias cautiously bullish but not fully reversed.

Thursday, December 04, 2025

UOI - 04 Dec 2025

Stock: United Overseas Insurance Limited (UOI) — SGX: U13
Timeframe: Daily
Date Range: Jan 2025 → 4 Dec 2025
Bars: ~230
Last Traded Price: 7.60

1. Current Market Regime Classification

➡️ Ranging → Bearish Transition

The chart shows:

A broad range 7.30 – 8.10 since April.
Multiple failed attempts to break 8.00 – 8.10 resistance.
Recent inability to hold mid-range 7.80, followed by consistent closes near 7.60.
Increasing downside volatility in Oct–Nov with a key washout to 7.49 but no meaningful upside response.

This indicates a transition from a maturing range into early distribution.

2. Highest Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Structural ceiling at 8.00–8.10 is heavily defended by institutions

Every approach to 8.00–8.10 shows:

Wider ranges + high volume (effort)
Weak closes (poor result)
→ Effort vs result = distribution, not accumulation.

2. Mid-range value (7.70–7.75) has broken; this is the key bearish tell

This level held repeatedly from May–Aug.
Break below it in Nov → Change of Character (CHoCH) downward.

3. October washout to 7.49 = liquidity grab, but follow-through is weak

A proper spring should have:

Strong bullish follow-through
Demand tail + breakout above mid-range
Instead → price stalled → weak demand, confirming distribution.

4. Volume behaviour shows repeated absorption on up-days

Across July–November:

Green bars often show high volume but small closes, indicating supply absorbing every rally.

5. Local support at 7.49–7.55 is the final floor

This level was defended twice, but demand is thinning.
A breakdown opens 7.30, then 7.00.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Trend Structure

Key swing highs (SH): 7.85 (Apr), 7.94 (May), 8.09 (Aug), 7.94 (Oct)
Key swing lows (SL): 7.30 (Mar), 7.65 (Jul), 7.49 (Oct)

Break of Structure (BOS) / CHoCH

Nov CHoCH: Loss of 7.70 triggered a structural shift.
Micro BOS: Lower highs from Oct → Nov → Dec.

Momentum decay is clear:

Bars are overlapping and narrow.
Failed rallies show little range expansion.
No impulsive displacement upward since August.

4. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Events (Institutional Supply)

Repeated at:

7.90–8.10 (major ceiling)
7.75–7.80 (mid-range supply)

High volume + small upward progress = sellers in control.

Volume Clusters

July, September, and October show large red-volume surges → distribution spikes.
No sustained green clusters → demand is episodic, not structural.

Volume Divergence

Price held near 7.80 in October, but volume declined, confirming weakening interest before the drop.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

Oct low at 7.49 is a clear liquidity sweep.
But lack of reversal strength indicates it was not a spring—just stop-hunting.

Order Blocks

Bearish OB: 7.90–8.00 (Aug–Sep)
New bearish OB: 7.75–7.80 (Nov–Dec) → acting as near-term supply.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Small downside FVGs created in late Nov are unfilled → bearish continuation bias.

Displacement

Sharp down move from 7.80 → 7.55 in mid-Nov shows true institutional sell pressure.

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

Strong bullish hammers are absent near lows → no genuine accumulation signatures.
Most long-wick bars appear on rallies, not at lows → signs of selling into strength.

Indecision Bars Increasing

Cluster of spinning tops at 7.60–7.70 shows:

Supply meeting demand
But with the trend turning down, these are continuation patterns, not reversals.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly structure:

Lower highs since Aug
Flat support at 7.50
Tightening range
→ Classic distribution top pattern.

Daily + weekly both point to downside pressure.

8. Psychological Levels

Key levels with behavioural significance:

8.00 (round number stopper)
7.50 (weekly support pivot)
7.30 (March low, high-probability revisit if breakdown occurs)

9. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)

Entry zone: 7.70–7.75 (supply OB)
Stop: Above 7.90
Targets:

T1: 7.50
T2: 7.30
T3: 7.00 (if a major breakdown occurs)

Risk/Reward ≈ 1:2.5 → 1:4

Bullish Scenario (Low Probability, Needs Confirmation)

Need a clean reclaim of 7.80 + volume expansion.

Entry: After breakout-retest of 7.80
Stop: 7.60
Targets:

T1: 8.00
T2: 8.10 (major resistance)
T3: 8.30 only if volume displacement appears

10. Forward-Looking Bias

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral

Unless 7.80 is reclaimed convincingly.

Key Signals to Watch

Break below 7.49
→ Opens fast path to 7.30, then 7.00.
Failure to climb above 7.75
→ Confirms continued distribution.
Volume expansion on down-days
→ Confirms institutional continuation selling.

11. Summary (Professional-Level Takeaway)

UOI is not in accumulation.
The structure shows:

Persistent supply
Weak demand
Distribution signatures
Lower highs + mid-range failure

The most probable path is continued weakness toward 7.50 → 7.30 unless a strong bullish catalyst shifts order flow.

Wednesday, December 03, 2025

CapLand India - 03 Dec 2025

Stock: CapitaLand India Trust (CY6U)
Exchange: SGX
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: April 2025 → December 2025
Bars in Range: ~180+
Last Traded Price: 1.19

1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

✔️ Structural Trend

From April → August: clear uptrend, with rising SL → SH sequence
- SL: 0.96 → 0.99 → 1.13
- SH: 1.00 → 1.20 → 1.23
From September → November: distribution-range formation
- Triple swing highs at 1.20 (significant resistance)
- Higher low attempts at 1.13 → 1.14, forming demand base

✔️ Break of Structure / CHoCH

First CHoCH occurs when price failed to break past 1.20 in late September.
Second CHoCH when price set a lower low into 1.14, confirming range.

✔️ Momentum Decay

Note the strong rally into July–August with wide candles.
Post-August:
- Smaller bar ranges
- More overlapping bars
  → Textbook indication of institutional distribution.

2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

✔️ High-Volume Signals

August–September rallies into 1.20 showed volume expansion, but candles produced smaller bodies → Absorption at resistance.
October and November sell-offs saw:
- High volume + wide red bars → professional selling, not retail.

✔️ Clear Volume Divergence

Price retests 1.20 three times
But volume decreases each time → weakening demand → exhaustion.

✔️ Recent High-Volume Flush

The large red bar near 1.15 with very high volume signals:
→ Liquidity grab + stop-hunt
→ Smart money using liquidity to accumulate.

3. Institutional Footprints

✔️ Liquidity Grabs

Sharp spike down to ~1.15 recently is a perfect example:
- Sweeps resting liquidity
- Immediately retraces upward
  → Classic institutional accumulation signature.

✔️ Order Blocks

Bullish order block identified at 1.13–1.14
- Price respected this zone multiple times
- Evidence of smart money defending demand block

✔️ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

FVG formed during July impulse move
Price later revisited the zone → efficient market structure

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

✔️ Key Bar Patterns Observed

Repeated rejection wicks at 1.20 → strong seller presence
Engulfing bearish candles during distribution phase
Hammer-like recovery candles near 1.14
- With volume confirmation → valid reversal bars

✔️ Recent Bar-by-Bar Read

Strong red candle flush (stop-hunt)
Immediate strong green candle reclaim → bullish absorption
Followed by inside-bar compression → energy coiling for next move

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Higher timeframe (weekly) shows:
- Price stalled at long-term resistance 1.20–1.23
- Daily compression aligning with weekly supply
  → Expect volatility + potential breakout soon.

6. Psychological Level Integration

1.20 = major psychological + structural level
1.00 earlier was strong round-number support in accumulation
ATR shows recent moves are within normal volatility, no panic behavior.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

🎯 High-Probability Zones

Bullish High-Probability Entry Zones

1.13–1.14 → strong accumulation zone
1.17 → mid-range reclaimed level
(Stops can be tight below 1.13)

Short-Term Bullish Targets

1.20 (first resistance)
1.23 (breakout target)

If Breakout Occurs

Measured-move projection:

Range height: 1.23 – 1.13 = 0.10
Breakout target = 1.23 + 0.10 = 1.33

🚫 Bearish Breakdown Levels

A daily close below 1.13 triggers a range breakdown → next support at 1.00.

8. Market Regime Classification

Current Regime:

➡️ Ranging / Distribution–Accumulation Transition

Top distribution at 1.20–1.23
But deeper structure shows accumulation at 1.13–1.14
→ Price is rotating between institutional supply and demand.

9. Institutional Supply–Demand Zones

Supply Zone:

1.20–1.23 (multi-touch + absorption)

Demand Zone:

1.13–1.14 (accumulation block)

10. Sector & Market Context

REIT-like structures on SGX have seen:
- Stable flows
- Reduced volatility
- Supportive macro (Singapore rates cooling toward 2026)
  → Favors accumulation patterns in yield-type counters.

🔥 Highest Conviction Observations

1. 1.13–1.14 is a protected institutional demand zone.

Repeated absorption + many tests = strong buying.

2. 1.20 is the ceiling controlled by smart money.

Multiple failed attempts show supply remains heavy.

3. Recent liquidity sweep below 1.16 is a bullish sign, not bearish.

Stop-hunts typically precede large directional moves.

4. Volume compression suggests an upcoming expansion move.

5. Structure favors a retest of 1.20, and a potential breakout depends on follow-through volume.

📌 Forward-Looking Bias

Baseline Bias:

➡️ Mildly Bullish within Range
As long as price holds above 1.14, buyers maintain control.

Breakout Bias:

A strong breakout above 1.23 with expanding volume leads to 1.30–1.33.

Breakdown Bias:

A close below 1.13 invalidates bullish thesis → move toward 1.00.

🎯 Key Levels to Watch

Support

1.14 (Major)
1.13 (Critical – Do Not Break)
1.00 (Range reset)

Resistance

1.20 (Heavy supply)
1.23 (Breakout)