Friday, December 05, 2025

LHN - 05 Dec 2025

LHN Limited (41O) — Daily Chart

Timeframe: 1D
Date Range: ~Apr 2025 → 5 Dec 2025
Bars Analyzed: ~160
Last Traded Price: 0.690


1. Market Regime Classification (Current State)

LHN is currently in a transition → early accumulation regime after a sharp markdown from 1.08.
Key signatures:

  • Selling pressure weakening (shorter red bar ranges).

  • Volume tapering into late November → early December (possible absorption).

  • Sideways base forming around 0.63 – 0.69.

Bias: Early signs of accumulation but no confirmed reversal yet.


2. Highest Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Major Structural Top Identified at 1.080 With Clear Distribution

The wide-range upthrust into 1.08 followed by immediate failure = institutional offloading.

2. Repeated Attempts to Hold the 0.775–0.780 Zone Failed → Confirming BOS Down

This was a key CHoCH → BOS in early September.

3. Current Base Between 0.63–0.69 Shows Absorption

Multiple small-range bars with declining volume = strong hands absorbing supply.

4. Volume Spike in Late Oct / Early Nov Was Followed by Poor Upward Result

High effort → poor result = persistent supply.

5. Near-term liquidity pool sits above 0.715–0.730

This is the first upside magnet if price can sustain above 0.70.


3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Primary Swing Structure

  • SH (Major): 1.080

  • SH (Prior): 0.915

  • SL: 0.775 → 0.780 → current base 0.63 region

Break of Structure Events

  • BOS Down:

    • Break below 0.775 (Aug)

    • Break below 0.780 (Sep)

    • Confirms transition into a downtrend

CHoCH Attempts:

  • Mid-Oct bounce looked like a CHoCH attempt but failed due to lack of volume follow-through.

Trend Momentum Decay:

  • Large, decisive red bars early in the decline.

  • Recently → small overlapping bars = sell momentum weakening.


4. Volume-Price Relationship Analysis (VPR)

Key Signatures:

  1. High volume + wide spread around 1.08
    → distribution / exit liquidity for institutions.

  2. Low volume drift downward (Nov)
    → selling exhaustion, potential accumulation.

  3. Volume divergence

    • Price made lower lows (0.64)

    • But volume decreased
      → bearish momentum fading.

  4. Early Dec small-range up bars on slightly higher volume
    → early accumulation footprints.


5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

  • Wick beyond 0.775 during August pullback = classic stop-run before further markdown.

Order Blocks

  • Bearish OB: 1.02–1.08 (strong selling zone)

  • Bullish OB Candidate: 0.63–0.66 (current absorption)

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

  • FVG on the run from 0.90 → 1.08 (likely to be filled only in a major cyclical reversal)

Displacement

  • Strong displacement down from 0.90 → 0.75

  • No similar displacement upward yet → bulls not in control.


6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

  • Several hammer-like bars around 0.64–0.68
    → BUT most on low volume → weak conviction.

Continuation Patterns

  • Series of lower-high compressions in Oct → textbook bearish continuation.

Indecision Bars

  • Multiple dojis at current base
    → typical near accumulation/support zones.


7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

  • Weekly Chart:

    • Shows a clear markdown from 1.08.

    • Weekly volume basing around ~0.65 suggests mid-term accumulation.

  • Daily Chart:

    • Matches: transition → early accumulation.

Confluence supports bottoming attempts, not a confirmed reversal.


8. Psychological Levels

  • 0.700 = near-term psychological barrier.

  • 0.750 = former support → now resistance.

  • 0.600 = major downside psychological level if base fails.


9. Supply/Demand Imbalance Zones

Demand

  • 0.63–0.66 = absorption zone

  • Signs of strong hands accumulating small quantities.

Supply

  • 0.70–0.73: Light supply, first liquidity magnet

  • 0.75–0.78: Heavy supply where prior supports flipped to resistance

  • 0.90+: Major distribution area


10. Key Catalytic Levels (Actionable Zones)

Upside Key Levels

LevelSignificance
0.700Break → unlocks short-term momentum
0.715–0.730First liquidity cluster; common mean-reversion target
0.775–0.780Heavy distribution; requires strong volume to reclaim
0.915Macro recovery target if trend reversal forms

Downside Key Levels

LevelSignificance
0.660Base of current absorption
0.630Critical support; break = continuation down
0.600Psychological round number + liquidity pool

11. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Most Probable Short-Term Scenario

  • Slow grind upward toward 0.700 – 0.720 if current absorption continues.

Bullish Setup

  • Entry: Break + hold above 0.700 with volume > 20-day average

  • Stop: Below 0.660

  • Targets:

    • T1: 0.720

    • T2: 0.750

    • T3: 0.780

  • RR: ~1:2.5 to 1:3

Bearish Setup

  • Invalidation level: Break below 0.630

  • Target: 0.600 → 0.575 zone


12. Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias:

Neutral → Slightly bullish, pending confirmation above 0.70.

Why?

  • Selling exhaustion

  • Absorption at base

  • Declining volatility

  • Improving bar structure

Key Trigger to Confirm Reversal:

Daily close above 0.720 with expanding volume.


Summary (Ultra-Concise)

  • LHN has moved from distribution → markdown → early accumulation.

  • Base building at 0.63–0.69 with absorption.

  • First bullish trigger at 0.700; momentum improves only above 0.720.

  • Heavy supply zones remain at 0.75–0.78 and 0.90+.

  • Bias cautiously bullish but not fully reversed.


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   2.90%



Thursday, December 04, 2025

UOI - 04 Dec 2025

  • Stock: United Overseas Insurance Limited (UOI) — SGX: U13

  • Timeframe: Daily

  • Date Range: Jan 2025 → 4 Dec 2025

  • Bars: ~230

  • Last Traded Price: 7.60


1. Current Market Regime Classification

➡️ Ranging → Bearish Transition

The chart shows:

  • A broad range 7.30 – 8.10 since April.

  • Multiple failed attempts to break 8.00 – 8.10 resistance.

  • Recent inability to hold mid-range 7.80, followed by consistent closes near 7.60.

  • Increasing downside volatility in Oct–Nov with a key washout to 7.49 but no meaningful upside response.

This indicates a transition from a maturing range into early distribution.


2. Highest Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Structural ceiling at 8.00–8.10 is heavily defended by institutions

Every approach to 8.00–8.10 shows:

  • Wider ranges + high volume (effort)

  • Weak closes (poor result)
    Effort vs result = distribution, not accumulation.

2. Mid-range value (7.70–7.75) has broken; this is the key bearish tell

This level held repeatedly from May–Aug.
Break below it in Nov → Change of Character (CHoCH) downward.

3. October washout to 7.49 = liquidity grab, but follow-through is weak

A proper spring should have:

  • Strong bullish follow-through

  • Demand tail + breakout above mid-range
    Instead → price stalled → weak demand, confirming distribution.

4. Volume behaviour shows repeated absorption on up-days

Across July–November:

  • Green bars often show high volume but small closes, indicating supply absorbing every rally.

5. Local support at 7.49–7.55 is the final floor

This level was defended twice, but demand is thinning.
A breakdown opens 7.30, then 7.00.


3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Trend Structure

  • Key swing highs (SH): 7.85 (Apr), 7.94 (May), 8.09 (Aug), 7.94 (Oct)

  • Key swing lows (SL): 7.30 (Mar), 7.65 (Jul), 7.49 (Oct)

Break of Structure (BOS) / CHoCH

  • Nov CHoCH: Loss of 7.70 triggered a structural shift.

  • Micro BOS: Lower highs from Oct → Nov → Dec.

Momentum decay is clear:

  • Bars are overlapping and narrow.

  • Failed rallies show little range expansion.

  • No impulsive displacement upward since August.


4. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Events (Institutional Supply)

Repeated at:

  • 7.90–8.10 (major ceiling)

  • 7.75–7.80 (mid-range supply)

High volume + small upward progress = sellers in control.

Volume Clusters

  • July, September, and October show large red-volume surges → distribution spikes.

  • No sustained green clusters → demand is episodic, not structural.

Volume Divergence

Price held near 7.80 in October, but volume declined, confirming weakening interest before the drop.


5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

  • Oct low at 7.49 is a clear liquidity sweep.
    But lack of reversal strength indicates it was not a spring—just stop-hunting.

Order Blocks

  • Bearish OB: 7.90–8.00 (Aug–Sep)

  • New bearish OB: 7.75–7.80 (Nov–Dec) → acting as near-term supply.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

  • Small downside FVGs created in late Nov are unfilled → bearish continuation bias.

Displacement

  • Sharp down move from 7.80 → 7.55 in mid-Nov shows true institutional sell pressure.


6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

  • Strong bullish hammers are absent near lows → no genuine accumulation signatures.

  • Most long-wick bars appear on rallies, not at lows → signs of selling into strength.

Indecision Bars Increasing

Cluster of spinning tops at 7.60–7.70 shows:

  • Supply meeting demand

  • But with the trend turning down, these are continuation patterns, not reversals.


7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly structure:

  • Lower highs since Aug

  • Flat support at 7.50

  • Tightening range
    → Classic distribution top pattern.

Daily + weekly both point to downside pressure.


8. Psychological Levels

Key levels with behavioural significance:

  • 8.00 (round number stopper)

  • 7.50 (weekly support pivot)

  • 7.30 (March low, high-probability revisit if breakdown occurs)


9. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)

Entry zone: 7.70–7.75 (supply OB)
Stop: Above 7.90
Targets:

  • T1: 7.50

  • T2: 7.30

  • T3: 7.00 (if a major breakdown occurs)

Risk/Reward ≈ 1:2.5 → 1:4


Bullish Scenario (Low Probability, Needs Confirmation)

Need a clean reclaim of 7.80 + volume expansion.

Entry: After breakout-retest of 7.80
Stop: 7.60
Targets:

  • T1: 8.00

  • T2: 8.10 (major resistance)

  • T3: 8.30 only if volume displacement appears


10. Forward-Looking Bias

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral

Unless 7.80 is reclaimed convincingly.

Key Signals to Watch

  1. Break below 7.49
    → Opens fast path to 7.30, then 7.00.

  2. Failure to climb above 7.75
    → Confirms continued distribution.

  3. Volume expansion on down-days
    → Confirms institutional continuation selling.


11. Summary (Professional-Level Takeaway)

UOI is not in accumulation.
The structure shows:

  • Persistent supply

  • Weak demand

  • Distribution signatures

  • Lower highs + mid-range failure

The most probable path is continued weakness toward 7.50 → 7.30 unless a strong bullish catalyst shifts order flow.


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   2.24%


Wednesday, December 03, 2025

CapLand India - 03 Dec 2025

  • Stock: CapitaLand India Trust (CY6U)

  • Exchange: SGX

  • Timeframe: Daily (1D)

  • Date Range: April 2025 → December 2025

  • Bars in Range: ~180+

  • Last Traded Price: 1.19


1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

✔️ Structural Trend

  • From April → August: clear uptrend, with rising SL → SH sequence

    • SL: 0.96 → 0.99 → 1.13

    • SH: 1.00 → 1.20 → 1.23

  • From September → November: distribution-range formation

    • Triple swing highs at 1.20 (significant resistance)

    • Higher low attempts at 1.13 → 1.14, forming demand base

✔️ Break of Structure / CHoCH

  • First CHoCH occurs when price failed to break past 1.20 in late September.

  • Second CHoCH when price set a lower low into 1.14, confirming range.

✔️ Momentum Decay

  • Note the strong rally into July–August with wide candles.

  • Post-August:

    • Smaller bar ranges

    • More overlapping bars
      Textbook indication of institutional distribution.


2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

✔️ High-Volume Signals

  • August–September rallies into 1.20 showed volume expansion, but candles produced smaller bodiesAbsorption at resistance.

  • October and November sell-offs saw:

    • High volume + wide red barsprofessional selling, not retail.

✔️ Clear Volume Divergence

  • Price retests 1.20 three times

  • But volume decreases each time → weakening demand → exhaustion.

✔️ Recent High-Volume Flush

  • The large red bar near 1.15 with very high volume signals:
    Liquidity grab + stop-hunt
    → Smart money using liquidity to accumulate.


3. Institutional Footprints

✔️ Liquidity Grabs

  • Sharp spike down to ~1.15 recently is a perfect example:

    • Sweeps resting liquidity

    • Immediately retraces upward
      Classic institutional accumulation signature.

✔️ Order Blocks

  • Bullish order block identified at 1.13–1.14

    • Price respected this zone multiple times

    • Evidence of smart money defending demand block

✔️ Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

  • FVG formed during July impulse move

  • Price later revisited the zone → efficient market structure


4. Bar Pattern Recognition

✔️ Key Bar Patterns Observed

  • Repeated rejection wicks at 1.20 → strong seller presence

  • Engulfing bearish candles during distribution phase

  • Hammer-like recovery candles near 1.14

    • With volume confirmation → valid reversal bars

✔️ Recent Bar-by-Bar Read

  1. Strong red candle flush (stop-hunt)

  2. Immediate strong green candle reclaim → bullish absorption

  3. Followed by inside-bar compression → energy coiling for next move


5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

  • Higher timeframe (weekly) shows:

    • Price stalled at long-term resistance 1.20–1.23

    • Daily compression aligning with weekly supply
      → Expect volatility + potential breakout soon.


6. Psychological Level Integration

  • 1.20 = major psychological + structural level

  • 1.00 earlier was strong round-number support in accumulation

  • ATR shows recent moves are within normal volatility, no panic behavior.


7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

🎯 High-Probability Zones

Bullish High-Probability Entry Zones

  • 1.13–1.14 → strong accumulation zone

  • 1.17 → mid-range reclaimed level
    (Stops can be tight below 1.13)

Short-Term Bullish Targets

  • 1.20 (first resistance)

  • 1.23 (breakout target)

If Breakout Occurs

Measured-move projection:

  • Range height: 1.23 – 1.13 = 0.10

  • Breakout target = 1.23 + 0.10 = 1.33

🚫 Bearish Breakdown Levels

  • A daily close below 1.13 triggers a range breakdown → next support at 1.00.


8. Market Regime Classification

Current Regime:

➡️ Ranging / Distribution–Accumulation Transition

  • Top distribution at 1.20–1.23

  • But deeper structure shows accumulation at 1.13–1.14
    Price is rotating between institutional supply and demand.


9. Institutional Supply–Demand Zones

Supply Zone:

  • 1.20–1.23 (multi-touch + absorption)

Demand Zone:

  • 1.13–1.14 (accumulation block)


10. Sector & Market Context

  • REIT-like structures on SGX have seen:

    • Stable flows

    • Reduced volatility

    • Supportive macro (Singapore rates cooling toward 2026)
      → Favors accumulation patterns in yield-type counters.


🔥 Highest Conviction Observations

1. 1.13–1.14 is a protected institutional demand zone.

Repeated absorption + many tests = strong buying.

2. 1.20 is the ceiling controlled by smart money.

Multiple failed attempts show supply remains heavy.

3. Recent liquidity sweep below 1.16 is a bullish sign, not bearish.

Stop-hunts typically precede large directional moves.

4. Volume compression suggests an upcoming expansion move.

5. Structure favors a retest of 1.20, and a potential breakout depends on follow-through volume.


📌 Forward-Looking Bias

Baseline Bias:

➡️ Mildly Bullish within Range
As long as price holds above 1.14, buyers maintain control.

Breakout Bias:

  • A strong breakout above 1.23 with expanding volume leads to 1.30–1.33.

Breakdown Bias:

  • A close below 1.13 invalidates bullish thesis → move toward 1.00.


🎯 Key Levels to Watch

Support

  • 1.14 (Major)

  • 1.13 (Critical – Do Not Break)

  • 1.00 (Range reset)

Resistance

  • 1.20 (Heavy supply)

  • 1.23 (Breakout)


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.71%



Tuesday, December 02, 2025

CapLand IntCom - 02 Dec 2025

  • Stock: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U)

  • Exchange: SGX

  • Timeframe: Daily

  • Date Range: Apr 2025 → 2 Dec 2025

  • Bars Count: ~160

  • Last Traded Price: 2.33


1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure

  • The chart forms a broad uptrend from May → Sep, marked by:

    • Higher swing lows: 2.02 → 2.17 → 2.23 → 2.25

    • Higher swing highs: 2.20 → 2.25 → 2.37 → 2.44

  • After the 2.44 top (late Oct), momentum decelerated sharply, pulling into a mild distribution range (2.27–2.40).

Key Structural Observations

  • BOS (Bullish): Break above 2.25 (July) signaled transition to trending phase.

  • CHoCH (Bearish):

    • Post-2.44, price failed to make a new HH → formed LH at ~2.38, shifting into mild down/sideways structure.

  • Trend Momentum Decay:

    • Noticeable in Nov: shorter candle bodies, overlapping ranges, weaker follow-through → classic late-stage trend exhaustion.

Structural Summary:
Strong uptrend → slow distribution → current regime = range with bearish tilt.


2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Major Observations

  • Volume spike at 2.02 (June) but small price range → absorption → institutions defending demand zone.

  • Breakout from 2.25 (Aug) occurred on clean volume expansion, confirming professional involvement.

  • New high at 2.44 formed on lower volume compared to 2.37 → volume divergence → early exhaustion signal.

  • Recent bars (Nov–Dec) show increasing volume on down bars, low volume on up bars → distribution bias.

VPR Summary:
Smart money accumulated between 2.02–2.23, distributed from 2.37–2.44.


3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

  • Sharp wicks below 2.17 (Sep) ≈ stop hunt → followed by strong up-move → classic liquidity grab → institutional mark-up.

Order Blocks

  • Bullish OB: 2.17–2.20 (mid-Sep) → price returned here repeatedly to find demand.

  • Bearish OB: 2.38–2.42 (Nov) → clear rejection zone.

Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)

  • Minor FVG between 2.23–2.26 (Aug) → fully rebalanced.

Wyckoff Behaviors

  • Accumulation (May–July): sideways, tests, demand absorption.

  • Distribution (Nov–Dec): wide swings, failed higher-high attempts, supply absorption.


4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Signals

  • 2.44 top produced:

    • Upper-wick rejection

    • Lower volume

    • Follow-through weakness → textbook exhaustion bar.

Continuation Patterns

  • Up-leg from Aug → Sep showed multiple inside bars → breakout continuation.

Indecision Bars

  • Nov cluster around 2.33–2.38 = spinning tops & dojis → classic transition zone, not trend continuation.


5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

  • Weekly chart bias: sideways with mild upward slope

  • Daily: currently in range consolidation

  • Confluence Zone:

    • 2.27 (daily SL) aligns with multi-week support

    • 2.38–2.44 serves as clear higher-timeframe supply


6. Psychological / Key Levels

  • 2.20 = round-number support → respected multiple times

  • 2.30 = psychological magnet → current battle zone

  • 2.40 = psychological resistance underneath swing high 2.44


7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

High-Conviction Zones

Demand Zones (Long Bias)

  1. 2.27–2.30

    • Confluence of swing low + HVN + prior demand

  2. 2.20–2.23

    • Structural SL cluster + historical demand

Supply Zones (Short Bias)

  1. 2.38–2.40

  2. 2.44 (major swing high)

R/R Opportunities

  • Long at 2.27–2.30 → TP1 2.38, TP2 2.44 → R/R ~1:2.5

  • Short at 2.38–2.40 → TP 2.30 → R/R ~1:2


8. Market Regime Classification

Current regime = RANGE → mild bearish transition
Characteristics:

  • Failed HH at 2.44

  • LH at 2.38

  • Increasing supply volume

  • Price hovering mid-range (2.30–2.35)


9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

Supply Dominance

  • Strong selling pressure whenever price enters 2.38–2.44

  • Lower closes on higher volume in mid-Nov

Demand Presence

  • Buyers defend 2.27–2.30 consistently

  • But weaker follow-through → suggests demand weakening


10. Comprehensive Market Context

  • REIT sector in SGX has been rotating as yields stabilize; higher-beta REITs took inflows first → CICT joined mid-cycle.

  • Rotation slowing now → aligns with chart’s distribution behavior.


Summary — Highest Conviction Observations

  1. Major uptrend ended at 2.44; now in distribution.

  2. 2.38–2.44 = institutional selling zone.

  3. 2.27–2.30 = last major demand zone; break here flips bias firmly bearish.

  4. Volume profile shows distribution → supply> demand.

  5. Short-term regime = range with downward tilt.


Forward-Looking Bias

Base case:

  • Expect price to oscillate between 2.27–2.40 with bearish lean.

Bullish Trigger:

  • Break & close above 2.40 with volume → retest → push to 2.44 and possibly 2.48.

Bearish Trigger:

  • Break below 2.27 → opens move toward 2.20.


Key Levels to Watch

  • Support: 2.30 • 2.27 • 2.23 • 2.20

  • Resistance: 2.38 • 2.40 • 2.44


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   4.68%



Monday, December 01, 2025

CapLand Ascendas - 01 Dec 2025

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) – 1D 

Chart Setup & Context

  • Stock: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U)

  • Exchange: SGX

  • Timeframe: 1-Day

  • Date Range on Chart: ~March 2025 → Dec 2025

  • Last Traded Price: 2.78

  • Number of Bars (approx.): ~180


1. Market Regime Classification (Lead Section)

→ Current Regime: Late-range / Weakening Distribution Structure

Evidence:

  • Price repeatedly rejected 2.87 – 2.90 supply zone (3 tests).

  • Higher lows from June → Aug, but no higher high beyond 2.90.

  • Since Oct, price oscillates between 2.76 support and 2.88 resistance, without directional conviction.

  • Volume weakening on rallies → typical of distribution.


2. Highest Conviction Observations (Institutional-Grade Insights)

(1) Key Resistance at 2.87–2.90: Sellers absorbed every breakout attempt

  • Each time price reached 2.87–2.90, volume expanded but follow-through failed.

  • Multiple supply tails indicate smart money selling into strength.

  • Bars closing off highs with long wicks ← classic distribution footprint.

(2) Support at 2.76 is holding, but with declining reaction strength

  • Buyers defended 2.76 twice (Nov & Dec).

  • But each bounce produces lower highs.

  • Volume on both bounces is smaller than the supply on prior drops → weak demand.

(3) Structural CHoCH (Change of Character) occurred after Aug peak

  • Aug front-run to 2.87 → strong rejection.

  • September swing low 2.65 created a lower low.

  • Market shifted from bullish sequence to range.

(4) Volume profile shows accumulation at 2.55 (June) but none recently

  • The only clear accumulation absorption bar occurred at the June 2.55 sell-off (long downward wick + high volume + strong reversal).

  • No such equivalent buyer footprint near recent lows → weakening demand.

(5) Current 2.78 area is a value zone inside a high-density volume cluster

  • Market is compressing into a tight range.

  • The tape shows reduced volatility → energy building for a directional breakout.


3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Swing Highs (SH)

  • 2.75 (Apr)

  • 2.72 (May)

  • 2.87 (Aug)

  • 2.87 (Oct)

  • 2.90 (early Nov) ← major SH

Swing Lows (SL)

  • 2.49 (Mar)

  • 2.55 (Jun)

  • 2.65 (Sep)

  • 2.76 (Oct)

  • 2.76 (Dec)

Structure Assessment

  • Strong uptrend Apr → Aug.

  • Broken by lower low in Sep (2.65).

  • Since then: broad range 2.76–2.90.

BOS Events

  • BOS Down: Break of 2.72 (June) → trend reset.

  • BOS Up: Break of 2.75 → uptrend resumed to 2.87.

  • BOS Down: Break of 2.72 (Sep) → transition into ranging market.

CHoCH Events

  • Post-August rejection → first CHoCH from bullish → neutral/bearish.


4. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

Key Observations

  • July–Aug rally: healthy volume, good spread → professional buying.

  • Aug peak at 2.87: wide-range + high volume → buying climax / distribution.

  • Downlegs in Sep: high volume + poor progress → absorption failure → real selling.

  • Rallies in Oct–Nov: small bars + smaller volumes → weak demand.

  • Recent candles: compressed ranges, uniform volumes → waiting for catalyst.


5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

  • Twice near 2.90, price wicks above prior highs then reverses → classic stop hunts.

Order Blocks

  • Bearish OB formed at 2.87–2.90 following strong downward displacement in early Sep.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

  • Small FVG left during July rally was filled on pullback – efficient market.

  • No major unfilled FVG recently → equilibrium structure.

Displacement Moves

  • Strong displacement down after 2.90 rejection → institutional selling confirmed.


6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

  • Strong bullish hammer at 2.55 (June) on high volume → institutional demand confirmed.

  • Weak shooting stars in Oct/Nov near 2.88 → distribution.

Continuation Patterns

  • Several inside bar clusters in late July → bullish continuation.

  • Recent inside bar clusters around 2.78 → coiled compression, upcoming move likely.


7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Although only daily chart provided, typical REIT monthly charts show:

  • Long-term sideways structure.

  • Strong value demand zone around 2.55–2.60 (multi-year support).

Thus:

  • Daily support at 2.76 is secondary.

  • Stronger support lies lower at 2.60 area.


8. Institutional Supply/Demand Zones

Major Supply

  • 2.87 – 2.90 (dominant supply, repeated rejections)

Intermediate Supply

  • 2.82 – 2.85 (cluster selling)

Major Demand

  • 2.76 (short-term)

  • 2.60 – 2.65 (medium-term)

  • 2.55 (strong long-term demand)


9. Actionable Zones (High-Probability Regions)

If Bullish

  • Entry Zone: 2.76 demand retest with strong bullish candle.

  • Target 1: 2.84

  • Target 2: 2.87

  • Stop: Below 2.74 (structural level)

If Bearish

  • Breakdown Entry: Clean break below 2.76 with volume

  • Target 1: 2.70

  • Target 2: 2.65

  • Target 3: 2.55 (major long-term value zone)

  • Stop: Above 2.80


10. Forward-Looking Bias

Neutral → Slightly Bearish Bias

Reason:

  • Lack of strong buyer footprint near 2.76.

  • Lower highs accumulating.

  • Distribution near 2.87–2.90.

Key Levels to Watch

  • 2.76 – if broken → correction begins.

  • 2.84 – reclaim indicates renewed demand.

  • 2.90 – only a strong close above this invalidates distribution thesis.


Condensed Summary

A17U is in late-range structure with signs of distribution at highs and weakening buyer strength at support. The 2.76 level is critical; losing it opens the path to 2.65 → 2.55. A break above 2.90 is needed to resume an uptrend.


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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