S&P 500 - 04 Apr 2025

S&P 500 Index (Ticker: SPX) on the Weekly timeframe:

🧠 1. Trend Analysis

• Overall Trend (Macro):

  • Strong uptrend from mid-2022 to early 2024.

  • Reversal confirmed early 2025 with a break of higher lows and heavy bearish candles.

• Recent Structure:

  • Higher High: ~5,600+ (recent peak before drop)

  • Higher Low: ~5,119.26 (now broken) → Signaling trend weakness or reversal.

  • Recent bars show lower highs and lower lows: beginning of a downtrend.

• Trend Weakening Signs:

  • Smaller bullish candles near top.

  • Increased overlap before the drop.

  • Sharp bearish engulfing bar post-peak.

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🔔 2. Key Price Action Signals

🔻 Major Bearish Bar (Week of Mar 31, 2025)

• Volume Spike: Highest volume since 2022.

• Bar Analysis:

  • Open: 5,527.91

  • High: 5,695.31

  • Low: 5,069.90

  • Close: 5,074.09

  • Range: Massive (~625 points)

  • Body: Large and bearish, closed near low → Strong selling conviction.

• Interpretation:

  • Bearish breakout with strong follow-through.

  • Could indicate institutions unloading positions (distribution phase).

⚠️ Previous Bar (Week before Mar 31)

• Doji-like candle: Suggests indecision or distribution before breakdown.

• No clear volume spike, but price failed to push higher.

🔺 Earlier Bullish Bars

• Several strong trend bars in 2023–2024.

• Followed by a loss of momentum and formation of a top.

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📉 3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Resistance Zones:

  • ~5,600 (Recent High)

  • ~4,818.62 (Key swing high from 2022 – might retest)

• Support Zones:

  • 5,119.26 (recent low – broken)

  • 4,607.07 → likely next target

  • 4,278.94 (next strong historical support)

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🚨 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakout: The current drop is a confirmed breakdown below 5,119.26.

  • Accompanied by strong volume → High conviction.

  • No lower wick → Sellers in full control.

• Pullback Possibilities: Watch for pullback to 5,119–5,200 range.

  • Could set up a bear flag before continuation down.

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🧭 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Context: Transitioning from bull → bear.

  • Recent bars = fear-driven selling (panic selling).

  • Momentum has flipped; traders now defensive.

• Psychology:

  • Greed → Distribution → Fear → Panic (current stage).

  • Institutions likely sold into strength.

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📦 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity

• Supply Zone: Around 5,600 – heavy sell-off originated here.

• Demand Zones:

  • 4,818 (old 2022 highs) = likely next battleground.

  • Large red volume bar = significant liquidity event.

• Liquidity Trap?

  • If the next bar is bullish with high wick → could be a bear trap.

  • For now, clear breakdown with no reversal signals.

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🛡️ 7. Risk Management Strategy (Hypothetical Example)

• Bias: Bearish (short-biased)

• Entry: After breakdown of 5,119.26 confirmed on high volume.

• Stop Loss: Just above the broken support (~5,200–5,250 range).

• Profit Targets:

  • TP1: 4,818

  • TP2: 4,607

  • TP3: 4,278

---

✅ Summary

• Trend: Reversal confirmed to downside.

• Key Signal: Massive bearish engulfing bar with high volume = high conviction sell.

• Bias: Short-term bearish until reversal patterns form.

• Next Steps: Watch for continuation to lower support or potential fake-out reversal signals (dojis/pin bars).

Dow Jones - 04 Apr 2025

Chart Analysis – Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI)

Ticker: DJI
Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
Current Price: 38,314.87
Weekly Change: -3,269.04 (-7.86%)

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🔍 1. Trend Analysis

• Trend Direction:

  • Current Trend: Downtrend

  • The recent high was at 45,073.63, followed by a steep drop, breaking previous swing lows near 40,000 and 38,000, confirming a lower high and now a potential lower low structure.

• Signs of Weakening Before Reversal:

  • Before this massive red bar, there were already signs of slowing upward momentum (e.g., smaller green candles and more overlapping bars).

  • The latest weekly bar is extremely bearish, suggesting strong selling pressure.

---

📌 2. Key Price Action Signals

• Strong Trend Bars:

  • The latest bar is a massive full-bodied red candle with very little wick – indicating strong sell-side momentum.

• Volume Spike:

  • This recent bar had the highest volume spike in the entire visible chart range (since 2020), which:

    • Indicates either panic selling or institutional liquidation.

    • The bar is large and closes near the low, confirming bearish continuation.

• Reversal Patterns / Signals:

  • No visible pin bar or doji preceding this drop – it was more of a clean breakdown, not a fakeout.

• Gap Down / Continuation:

  • The large red candle appears to be a breakaway bar after a distribution phase, indicating continuation rather than reversal.

---

🛑 3. Support & Resistance

• Support Levels:

  • Around 38,000 (being tested now).

  • Previous swing low at ~32,327 (Sept 2023).

  • Strong support at 29,653 and 28,660 (2022 lows).

• Resistance Levels:

  • 40,000–41,000 now acts as immediate resistance.

  • Strong resistance at 45,073 (ATH zone).

• Price has sliced through previous support near 40,000 like butter, showing no buyer defense.

---

⚔️ 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakout:

  • This is a strong downside breakout.

  • The large red candle and volume confirmation suggest institutional-level participation.

• Pullback:

  • Prior to this drop, we had a pullback (lower high) around 43,500 before the plunge.

  • The prior pullback didn't recover previous highs, indicating supply outweighs demand.

---

🌐 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Context: Bearish Reversal Phase

• Psychology:

  • Greed phase peaked at ATH → indecision with overlapping bars → now clearly in fear phase with panic selling.

• Bias:

  • Currently bearish unless price can reclaim the 40,000 zone with strong bullish confirmation.

---

💰 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Supply Zone: 43,000–45,000 (recent distribution before selloff)

• Demand Zone: 32,000–34,000 (historically supported rebounds)

• Volume & Liquidity Trap:

  • The big red bar may cause a bull trap liquidation, flushing out late bulls.

  • Watch for liquidity sweep around 38,000–36,000 for potential short-term bounces.

---

🛡️ 7. Risk Management Strategy (Hypothetical)

• Potential Entry (Short): After weak bounce toward 40,000–40,500.

• Stop Loss: Above 41,000 (invalidates short thesis).

• Target: 34,000 / 32,000 zones for short continuation.

• Reversal Buy Setup: Only if price holds above 38,000 and forms a bullish pin bar or engulfing candle with strong volume.

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🔮 Final Take

The DJI has officially entered a correction phase with high volume and a violent break below support. Expect volatility to rise, and watch closely how price behaves around the 38k level — this is now the battleground between bulls and bears.

Ho Bee Land - 05 Apr 2025

Ho Bee Land Ltd (SGX: H13) on the 1-Day timeframe

📈 1. Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: Neutral-to-Slight Bullish Reversal

  • Price previously in downtrend (Oct 2024–Feb 2025), now forming higher lows from the bottom at 1.71 SGD.

  • Last notable higher low: 1.71 → Recent highs at 1.80 and close at 1.79 suggest a potential base formation.

• Most Recent Highs/Lows:

  • Lower Highs: 2.04 → 1.99 → 1.97 → 1.90 → 1.84 → 1.80

  • Higher Lows: 1.71 (Mar) > 1.76 > 1.78 (Apr 4)

• Trend Weakness Signs:

  • Smaller bar sizes, overlap in recent price bars.

  • Volume declining during early March bounce → suggests weak buyer commitment.

---

📌 2. Key Price Action Signals

• Volume Spike Bars:

  • April 4, 2025: Slight volume uptick, small-bodied red candle. Indicates indecision or temporary rejection near resistance (1.80 SGD).

  • Feb low near 1.71: Large volume + long lower wick → likely demand zone / buyer absorption.

• Pin Bars & Engulfing:

  • Mid-Feb to early March: Series of small-bodied candles + long wicks → base forming around 1.71 - 1.76, strong evidence of buying pressure.

• Gap Analysis:

  • No major gaps observed recently, suggesting controlled market behavior, not panic or euphoria.

• Inside Bars:

  • Several small candles inside the prior bars from late March → tight consolidation before testing 1.80 resistance.

---

🧱 3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Support Zones:

  • 1.71 SGD: Strong demand (multiple bounces, long wicks, high volume)

  • 1.64 SGD (Feb 2024 swing low)

  • 1.70 SGD: Psychological level and prior bounce point

• Major Resistance Zones:

  • 1.80 – 1.85 SGD: Current rejection zone

  • 1.89 - 1.90 SGD: Historical resistance band (Oct–Dec 2024)

  • 1.99 – 2.04 SGD: Last major swing highs

---

💥 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Current Setup: Testing 1.80 resistance

  • Candle on Apr 4 shows rejection at 1.80, closed near low → not a strong breakout bar

  • Needs a clean break above 1.80 with volume surge to validate upside breakout

• Pullback Action:

  • Previous pullbacks from Jan–Feb respected lower levels (1.76, 1.71)

  • Current up move is gradual, not impulsive → bullish pullback structure forming

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🌐 5. Market Context & Trader Psychology

• Current Phase: Base building → early accumulation phase

• Trader Sentiment:

  • Indecision near 1.80 suggests seller hesitation

  • Long wicks on lows show fear absorption

  • Traders likely waiting for confirmation breakout above 1.80–1.85

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🧃 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

• Demand Zones:

  • 1.70 – 1.76 SGD: Accumulation zone, high probability for pullback buy setups

• Supply Zones:

  • 1.85 – 1.90 SGD: Multiple prior rejections

  • 2.00+ SGD: Previous bull trap zone

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🎯 7. Risk Management Strategy

• Entry (Breakout Play):

  • Entry trigger: Above 1.81–1.82 SGD on strong bullish candle + volume confirmation

• Stop Loss:

  • Below 1.76 SGD, or tighter under 1.78 SGD recent swing low

• Target Zones:

  • TP1: 1.89

  • TP2: 1.97

  • TP3: 2.04 (aggressive target)

---

📊 Final Thoughts:

• Bias: Mildly bullish with a breakout watch above 1.80

• Confirmation Needed: Volume + strong close over 1.80

• Trade Setup: Watch for breakout plays, or wait for a pullback to 1.76–1.71 for long entries

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 1.68%

Lion OSPL APAC Fin - Buy - 04 Apr 2025

Transaction Value

Total Contract ValueSGD 3,264.00

CommissionSGD 10.00

Clearing FeeSGD 1.06

SGX Trading FeeSGD 0.24

SGX SI FeeSGD 0.35

GSTSGD 1.05

Total Commission & FeesSGD 12.70

Indicative Total ProceedSGD 3,276.7

ActionBuy

Stock NameLION-OSPL APAC FIN S$

MarketSingapore

SymbolYLD

Order TypeLimit Order

Quantity3000

Order DurationGood for Today

Date-

PriceSGD 1.088

Settlement ModeCash Upfront

Settlement CurrencySGD

Riverstone - 03 Apr 2025

Technical Analysis of Riverstone Holdings Limited (AP4) - 1D Timeframe (SGX)

1. Trend Analysis

• Overall Trend: The stock has been in a downtrend from early 2025 after peaking at 1.120 SGD in February.

• Recent Price Action:

  • Lower highs: 1.070 → 1.030 → 0.945

  • Lower lows: 1.030 → 0.945 → 0.880

  • Signs of potential consolidation between 0.880 and 0.950.

Trend Weakening Signs:

• Smaller bearish bars: Indicates selling momentum may be slowing.

• Overlapping candles: Suggests indecision and possible base formation.

• Volume decline during downtrend: May indicate sellers are exhausted.

---

2. Key Price Action Signals

Bullish Signals:

✅ Support at 0.880 SGD: Price bounced off this level twice, making it a strong demand zone.
✅ Volume spike on breakout (December 2024): Strong uptrend followed after breaking 0.930 with volume support.
✅ Pin bar formation near 0.885 SGD (November 2024): Buyers stepped in, leading to a rally.

Bearish Signals:

❌ Lower highs & lower lows: Confirm a downtrend until proven otherwise.
❌ Failure to hold above 0.950 SGD: Indicates resistance is strong.
❌ Bearish rejection wicks at 1.070 and 1.120 SGD: Shows heavy supply at these levels.

Inside Bars & Doji Signals:

🔹 Doji Candles near 0.930-0.940: Indicates indecision; potential for breakout or breakdown.
🔹 Inside bars (October 2024 - November 2024): Led to a strong breakout above 0.930.

Gap Up / Down Analysis:

📉 Gap down from 1.070 → 0.950 (March 2025): Shows strong selling pressure.
📈 Breakout from 0.880 → 1.100 (December 2024): Indicated a bullish trend shift.

---

3. Support & Resistance Levels

📍 Major Support Levels:

• 0.880 SGD (Strong support, tested multiple times)

• 0.865 - 0.870 SGD (Minor support)

• 0.945 SGD (Old support, now resistance)

📍 Major Resistance Levels:

• 0.950 - 0.985 SGD (Strong supply zone)

• 1.020 - 1.030 SGD (Rejected twice)

• 1.100 - 1.120 SGD (Major resistance from February 2025)

---

4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• December 2024 breakout (from 0.930 to 1.100) was strong, supported by volume.

• Current pullback to 0.925-0.880 may form a base for reversal.

• Breakout above 0.950 with volume = potential bullish signal.

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5. Market Context & Trading Bias

🟠 Current Market Condition: Range-bound between 0.880 - 0.950 after a downtrend.
📊 Short-term bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 0.950 with strong volume.
📈 Long-term bias: Bullish if price breaks above 1.030 and holds.

Trader Sentiment (Psychology Interpretation):

• Buyers defended 0.880, but sellers dominate below 0.950.

• Indecision (Doji & small bars) shows market waiting for a catalyst.

---

6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

📊 High Supply Zones: 0.950 - 1.100 (Trapped long positions from previous uptrend).
📊 Strong Demand Areas: 0.880 - 0.885 (Buyers stepped in multiple times).
📈 High Liquidity Traps: 1.030 - 1.070 (False breakout & rejection).

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7. Trade Setups & Risk Management Strategy

Bullish Setup (If price holds above 0.930-0.950)

📌 Entry: Above 0.950 SGD after confirmation.
🎯 Target: 1st 1.020, 2nd 1.100
⛔ Stop-Loss: Below 0.920 SGD

Bearish Setup (If price breaks below 0.880)

📌 Entry: Below 0.870 SGD after confirmation.
🎯 Target: 0.850 → 0.800
⛔ Stop-Loss: Above 0.900 SGD

---

Conclusion: Watch for Key Levels!

✅ Break above 0.950 → Bullish bias
✅ Break below 0.880 → Bearish bias
⚠️ Current Range: Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   6.31%

QAF - 01 Apr 2025

Stock Analysis: QAF Limited (Q01) - 1D Timeframe (SGX)

1. Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: The stock is in an uptrend, as seen by the series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since mid-2024.

• Recent Higher Highs/Lows:

  • Recent high: 0.870 (April 1, 2025)

  • Recent low: 0.835 (March 2025)

• Trend Strength: The trend remains intact, with price making new higher closes, but some consolidation phases suggest temporary resistance.

2. Key Price Action Signals

• Strong Trend Bars:

  • The latest candle (April 1, 2025) is a bullish breakout bar, closing near the high (0.870), signaling buying momentum.

  • Previous strong bullish bars in March also showed higher closes, confirming the trend.

• Reversal Patterns:

  • No clear bearish reversal signals yet.

  • Watch for engulfing patterns or pin bars near resistance (0.870 - 0.880).

• Inside & Doji Bars:

  • A doji bar appeared near 0.840 in mid-March, leading to a continuation of the uptrend.

• Volume Spikes:

  • Volume increased near resistance at 0.865, indicating a possible breakout.

  • Previous high-volume days near 0.805 and 0.830 showed strong buyer interest, confirming accumulation.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Support Levels:

  • 0.840 - 0.845 (recent consolidation zone)

  • 0.825 - 0.830 (previous higher low and breakout level)

  • 0.800 (long-term demand zone)

• Key Resistance Levels:

  • 0.870 - 0.880 (current breakout level)

  • 0.885 - 0.900 (next psychological resistance)

4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakout Strength:

  • The latest breakout above 0.865 is strong, supported by increasing volume.

• Pullback Patterns:

  • If price pulls back to 0.850 - 0.855, it could offer a re-entry opportunity.

  • A shallow pullback with small-bodied candles would confirm trend strength.

5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Bias: Bullish (Trend favors buying pullbacks or breakout retests).

• Signs of Trend Weakening: None yet, but if price fails to hold above 0.865, a correction may follow.

• Trader Psychology: Buyers remain in control, but profit-taking could cause temporary dips.

6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Demand Zones: 0.825 - 0.830 (previous accumulation zone).

• Liquidity Traps: Watch for a fake breakout above 0.870, followed by rejection.

7. Risk Management Strategy

• Entry: On a pullback to 0.850 - 0.855 or a breakout above 0.870 with volume.

• Stop-Loss: Below 0.840 (previous consolidation).

• Profit Target: 0.880 - 0.900 (next resistance zone).

Final Thoughts

• Trend: Strong uptrend.

• Bias: Bullish, favoring buying pullbacks or breakout retests.

• Key Watch Areas:

  • Breakout confirmation above 0.870

  • Pullbacks to 0.850 - 0.855 as potential entry points

  • Volume behavior at resistance (0.870 - 0.880)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.75%