Arthur Wang Technical Analysis

Monday, August 11, 2025

Straits Trading - 11 Aug 25

Straits Trading (S20 · SGX) — Daily Chart — Aug 2024 to Aug 2025
Bars analyzed: ~230
Last traded price: 1.57 SGD

Market Regime Classification

Transition to Early Distribution Phase

Recent explosive rally to 1.78 (wide range, high volume) followed by sharp pullback.
Shift from higher highs to first significant lower high attempt at 1.70–1.72 zone.
Volatility expansion combined with profit-taking pressure visible in recent sessions.

Highest Conviction Observations

1. Macro & Micro Structure

Macro: Broke long-term resistance at 1.55 in July with strong impulse move.
Micro: Post-breakout high at 1.78 formed climactic bar → immediate retracement to 1.57 (current structural support test).
BOS (Break of Structure): Occurred at 1.55 in July, confirming trend shift from multi-month accumulation to markup.
CHoCH (Change of Character): August high at 1.78 now followed by shallow bounce → signals potential shift toward consolidation/distribution.

2. Institutional vs. Retail Footprints

Absorption bar near 1.55 in early July → strong hands defending breakout before initiating rally.
The 1.78 high had ultra-high volume + long upper wick → potential buying climax.
Current pullback bars show declining volume on downswings → controlled profit-taking, not panic selling yet.

3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

July rally: Wide range + volume expansion = professional buying.
Post-1.78 drop: First red bar with extremely high volume → likely institutional distribution.
Present: Reduced range with moderate volume → market waiting for next liquidity trigger.

4. Key Institutional Levels

Order Block Support: 1.53–1.55 zone (last bullish candle before breakout).
Liquidity Grab Potential: Below 1.55 to trigger stops before possible reversal.
Fair Value Gap: 1.46–1.50 left untested in July’s impulse leg.

5. Psychological & Multi-Timeframe Confluence

1.60 → near-term psychological pivot; current price sitting under it = short-term bearish bias.
1.55 → confluence of breakout retest + order block support.
Weekly timeframe still bullish but daily shows possible topping pattern.

Forward Bias & Key Levels

Bullish Scenario: Hold above 1.55 → retest 1.60 then attempt 1.70+.
Bearish Scenario: Break below 1.55 on volume → fast drop toward 1.50, possibly 1.46 FVG fill.

Risk Management

Stop Zone (Longs): Below 1.53 to avoid liquidity sweep risk.
Profit Target (Longs): 1.68–1.70 initial zone.
Risk–Reward Example: Entry 1.56, stop 1.52, target 1.70 = ~1:3 R/R.

Trade Summary: Buying S20 because price is retesting post-breakout institutional support at 1.55 with controlled pullback volume, with stops at 1.52 targeting 1.70 for ~1:3 R/R.
Confidence: 6.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.52–1.55 (support), 1.60 (pivot), 1.68–1.70 (resistance).

Reminder Checklist Before Execution:

Confirm support hold on lower timeframe with volume increase.
Watch for liquidity sweep below 1.55 before reversal.
Avoid chasing if price spikes directly into resistance without pullback.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 5.10%

Saturday, August 09, 2025

Kimly - 08 Aug 25

KIMLY (SGX: 1D)
Date Range Observed: Aug 2024 – Aug 8, 2025
Bars in Period: ~245 trading sessions
Last Traded Price: 0.365 SGD

1. Market Regime Classification

Current Regime: Transitioning from extended range-bound accumulation into early uptrend, followed by short-term pullback.
Price spent ~11 months oscillating between 0.300–0.335, forming a long accumulation base before a sharp breakout in late July 2025.
Post-breakout, current structure shows two consecutive small-bodied red bars on decreasing volume, suggesting early consolidation rather than full reversal.

2. Market Structure & Order Flow

Swing Lows (SL): 0.300 (Apr 2025), 0.315 (May 2025), 0.320 (Jul 2025).
Swing Highs (SH): 0.335 (Feb 2025), 0.370 (Aug 2025 intraday high), 0.380 (recent peak).
Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred late July 2025 when price closed above 0.335 with strong range and volume.
Change of Character (CHoCH): None yet confirmed; current pullback remains above prior resistance (0.350–0.355), keeping bullish bias intact.
Momentum: Strong displacement candle on breakout followed by smaller overlapping bars—momentum cooling.

3. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Pre-Breakout Volume Dry-Up: Noticeable volume contraction in June–early July before explosive breakout, typical of institutional accumulation.
Breakout Volume Spike: Wide-range bullish bars with highest daily volumes of the year—clear institutional participation.
Current Pullback Volume: Lower than breakout levels, suggesting lack of aggressive selling pressure (healthy retracement).

4. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grab: Minor shakeout near 0.320 before launch higher, triggering stops of early longs.
Order Block: 0.330–0.335 zone marks last consolidation before explosive move—likely to act as strong demand.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between ~0.340–0.350 remains unfilled; potential magnet if deeper retracement occurs.
Displacement Move: Breakout leg from 0.330 to 0.370+ with minimal intraday retracement.

5. Bar Pattern Recognition

Breakout Bar: Wide green body closing near highs on peak volume—classic professional expansion.
Pullback Bars: Small-bodied red candles (narrow ranges), closing mid-to-lower range, with decreasing volume—suggestive of controlled pullback, not panic.
No bearish engulfing or high-volume reversal bar yet.

6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Higher Timeframe (Weekly): Clean breakout from a year-long base; weekly structure bullish unless price closes below 0.335.
Daily: Still above structural support at 0.350, aligning with weekly bullish bias.

7. Psychological & Key Levels

Resistance: 0.380 (recent high), 0.400 (psychological round number).
Support: 0.355 (prior resistance turned support), 0.335 (order block demand zone).
ATR Consideration: Current ATR expansion suggests volatility phase; pullbacks can be deeper but still trend intact above 0.335.

8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Long Entry Zone: 0.350–0.355 (if tested with volume absorption).
Stop Placement: Below 0.335 (invalidates breakout structure).
Primary Target: 0.400 psychological resistance.
Risk-Reward Potential: ~1:3 if entry near 0.355 and target 0.400.

9. Forward-Looking Bias

Breakout remains intact; pullback is healthy and low-volume.
Watch for bullish reversal bar near 0.355–0.360 to confirm institutional defense of breakout zone.
A daily close above 0.370 would signal continuation attempt toward 0.400.

Trade Summary: Buying KIMLY because price is in post-breakout pullback with low-volume retracement, institutional demand likely defending 0.350–0.355 zone, with stops at 0.335 targeting 0.400 for ~1:3 R/R.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels:

Support: 0.355 / 0.335
Resistance: 0.370 / 0.380 / 0.400

Execution Checklist Before Trade:

✅ Confirm bullish reversal bar at/near 0.355
✅ Volume must contract further on pullback and expand on up-move
✅ Higher timeframe (weekly) must maintain bullish candle closes
✅ Risk size to withstand possible retest of 0.335

Friday, August 08, 2025

APAC Realty - 08 Aug 25

APAC Realty (SGX:CLN) – Daily Chart – Analysis up to 8 Aug 2025
Last traded price: SGD 0.635

Market Regime Classification

Strong trending regime – Price is in an extended upside breakout with consecutive higher highs and higher lows since mid-May 2025, supported by rising volume. Pullbacks are shallow, confirming aggressive demand absorption by institutional participants.

High-Conviction Observations

Break of Structure (BOS) & Trend Continuity
- Prior range highs at 0.470 (Feb) and 0.460 (Mar) decisively broken in late July with wide-range bullish bars and volume expansion.
- Multiple BOS points since early July indicate aggressive continuation without significant retracement, suggesting sustained institutional participation.
Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
- Late July to early Aug: Consecutive wide-range up bars with strong volume expansion = institutional markup phase.
- No significant volume divergence yet; each new high is supported by equal or higher volume, validating breakout legitimacy.
Institutional Footprints
- Order block zone observed near 0.480–0.500, representing the last consolidation before the displacement move higher.
- Minimal overlap between bars and few deep wicks indicates clean upward liquidity sweeps rather than choppy retail-driven action.
Psychological & Structural Levels
- Psychological level at 0.600 broken without hesitation, turning into immediate support.
- Next probable psychological resistance at 0.650, with potential extension to 0.700 if volume persists.
Risk/Reward Zones
- Immediate support: 0.600 (psychological + minor consolidation).
- Secondary support: 0.565–0.570 (pullback base before latest acceleration).
- Potential target: 0.700–0.720 based on measured move projection from July breakout impulse.

Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bullish bias remains intact unless a decisive close below 0.600 with volume surge suggests distribution.
Watch for climactic volume near 0.650–0.670; could indicate short-term exhaustion if followed by inside-bar compression.
Higher timeframe (weekly) structure aligns with bullish continuation, adding confluence.

Trade Summary:
Buying APAC Realty because of strong breakout structure, consistent higher highs with volume expansion, and institutional markup phase, with stops at 0.565 targeting 0.700 for an approximate 1:2.3 R/R.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch: Support 0.600 / 0.565, Resistance 0.650 / 0.700

Checklist Before Execution:

Ensure position size aligns with max portfolio risk tolerance.
Confirm no pending macro or sector news that could disrupt trend.
Monitor intraday volume behaviour for signs of exhaustion.

Thursday, August 07, 2025

HRNetGroup - 07 Aug 25

HRNETGROUP (CHZ.SI) – SGX – Daily Chart Analysis (Nov 2024–Aug 7, 2025)
Chart Timeframe: Daily
Bars Analyzed: ~180
Last Traded Price: 0.705 SGD
Regime Classification: Transitioning from Accumulation to Emerging Uptrend

🔍 Top Technical Observations

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Swing Lows: 0.670 (Feb & May), 0.650 (Jun), 0.655 (Jul) – consistent demand absorption around this base.
Swing Highs: 0.700 (Dec, Apr, Jul), 0.715 (Apr) – significant supply zone repeatedly tested.
Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed in late July → price closed decisively above 0.700 psychological resistance.
Microstructure: Multiple higher lows since mid-June, clean upward staircase → suggests emerging bullish structure.

2. Volume-Price Relationship

Volume Expansion on Rally: Notably increasing from mid-June to early July, aligning with price lift-off from 0.655 → institutional activity confirmation.
Volume Contraction at Resistance: Tight bars with low volume in recent sessions near 0.705–0.710 → classic volume dry-up pre-breakout behavior.
Absorption: Seen during early consolidation at 0.700 in Dec/Apr → institutional buyers absorbing supply before marked-up move.

3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Order Block: 0.650–0.670 zone from mid-June shows repeated rejections and accumulation behavior → potential smart money entry base.
Liquidity Grab: Sharp drop to 0.650 in June followed by V-shaped reversal → spring-type action targeting weak retail stops.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Area between 0.685–0.695 from early July may act as magnet on pullbacks.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Recent Tight Range Cluster: Last 5 bars showing small-bodied candles with declining volume just beneath 0.710 → coiling behavior, possible inside bar complex.
No Bearish Rejection: Despite hitting resistance, bears have failed to push price down → strength concealed in consolidation.
Volume Spike Confirmation: Watch for breakout > 0.710 on above-average volume for institutional breakout confirmation.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly Context: This daily bullish structure emerges after a long weekly base (6+ months) → multi-timeframe breakout aligning.
Key Confluence Zone: 0.700 – serves as historical S/R + psychological level + BOS zone → strong pivot for continuation or failure.

🧠 Institutional Behavior Assessment

Accumulation Detected: Clear accumulation footprint around 0.650–0.670 with progressive higher lows, absorption candles, and spring-type traps.
Lack of Retail Momentum: Absence of chase volume at highs implies smart money may still be building positions → potential re-accumulation at current range.

🧭 Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

Parameter	Value
Entry Zone	Breakout > 0.710 (daily close confirmation)
Stop-Loss Placement	Below 0.690 (under recent swing low)
Initial Target	0.740 (measured move from base breakout)
Extended Target	0.765 (April high projection + momentum extension)
RRR	Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3.3 depending on target
Position Sizing Zone	0.700–0.705 (tight invalidation point)

✅ Key Levels & Execution Notes

Support: 0.700 (pivot), 0.690 (swing low), 0.670 (long-term demand)
Resistance: 0.710 (minor), 0.740 (projected), 0.765 (major)
ATR Zone (Daily): 0.010–0.015 → any breakout should exceed this range for validity.

📌 Trade Summary

Buying HRNETGROUP (SGX: CHZ) because price is consolidating beneath resistance after a breakout structure with absorption and volume dry-up, with stops at 0.690 targeting 0.740 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.

Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Bias: Bullish continuation above 0.710
Key Trigger: Breakout with volume above 0.710
Market Context: Emerging from re-accumulation base with compression pattern → potential expansion phase imminent.

✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

Wait for daily close > 0.710 on expanding volume
Confirm no sudden news catalysts disrupting technical thesis
Validate broader sector/market strength (SGX midcaps)
Align position size with R-multiple and risk profile

Wednesday, August 06, 2025

Tat Seng Pkg - 06 Aug 25

TAT SENG PKG (T12.SI) – Daily Chart Analysis
Exchange: SGX
Chart Timeframe: 1D
Date Range: Oct 2024 – Aug 6, 2025 (~200 bars)
Last Traded Price: 0.930 SGD

🔍 Current Market Regime: Transitioning from trending to consolidation with volatility expansion

🔑 High Conviction Observations

1. Macro to Micro Market Structure Assessment

Trend Evolution:
- Early Phase: Sideways from Oct '24 to Feb '25 with support at 0.770.
- Breakout Initiation: Clear shift in Mar '25 when price broke above swing highs at 0.820 and 0.890 – BOS confirmed.
- Intermediate Structure: Higher lows from 0.730 → 0.820 → 0.885, and higher highs from 0.850 → 0.890 → 0.960 indicate uptrend continuation.
- Recent CHoCH: Failed follow-through above 0.960, and drop below 0.920 signals possible change of character (CHoCH).

2. Volume-Price Relationship Analysis

Absorption & Demand Footprint:
- March–April: Strong volume clusters with narrow-body bars (accumulation zone) around 0.730–0.820 range.
- May–July: Consistent volume expansion with wide-body directional moves – indicates professional participation.
- Recent Bars (Aug): Large red candle with high volume at the top (~0.960) followed by decline = potential buying climax and profit-taking.

3. Institutional Activity & Smart Money Concepts

Liquidity Grab Evidence:
- The spike to 0.960 cleared prior highs around 0.890 with immediate retracement = classic bull trap and stop raid.
Fair Value Gap (FVG):
- Imbalance zone identified between 0.890 – 0.920 following strong displacement move in July. Price may revisit this demand area for testing.
Order Block Identification:
- Last significant bullish candle before breakout from 0.850 base now acts as bullish order block support.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition & Contextual Candlestick Behavior

Aug 5–6: Two-bar reversal setup:
- Strong bearish engulfing after a doji-like hesitation near 0.950 indicates supply rejection.
- Follow-up green bar on Aug 6 shows recovery but lacks range – signals indecision after aggressive selling.
High-Volume Bearish Bar (Aug 1): Long upper wick + high volume = buying climax / possible upthrust action.

5. Psychological Levels & Risk Zones

Key Psychological Round Numbers:
- 0.900 (support/resistance pivot) – price has oscillated around this zone multiple times.
- 1.000 – major round number and potential magnet zone if 0.960 is broken with strength.
Swing Support Zones:
- 0.885 → 0.850 → 0.820 – key downside zones with evidence of prior demand and volume defense.
ATR Consideration:
- Current daily ranges have expanded significantly, signaling volatility spike – potential for wide price swings, increasing both risk and reward potential.

📊 Key Price Levels & Execution Zones

Type	Price Level (SGD)	Rationale
Resistance Zone	0.950 – 0.960	Liquidity grab, previous top, supply rejections
Pivot Zone	0.900 – 0.920	Battle zone between bulls and bears
Support Cluster	0.885 – 0.850	Prior consolidation and volume accumulation
Institutional Demand	0.820	Order block and BOS origin zone

⚠️ Risk Management Framework

Stop Loss Zone: Below 0.850 (below last accumulation zone and key order block)
Profit Target Zone 1: 0.960 retest
Profit Target Zone 2: 1.000 psychological magnet if momentum resumes
Risk-Reward Estimate: ~1:2.5 if entry near 0.900 with stop at 0.850 and target at 0.960+

🔮 Forward Bias & Key Levels to Watch

Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish with caution – strong uptrend may be pausing or transitioning.
Trigger Levels:
- Bullish Continuation: Break and close above 0.960 with volume > average
- Bearish Shift: Close below 0.850 with wide range and above-average volume
Catalyst Watch: Seek recent earnings/corporate news that may explain spike to 0.960 and assess sustainability (pending catalyst research recommended).

📝 Trade Summary Sentence

Buying TAT SENG PKG (T12.SI) because of prior institutional accumulation and recent high-volume pullback into support with stops at 0.850 targeting 0.960 for 1:2.5 R:R, confidence rating: 7/10.

✅ Execution Checklist

Price confirmation above 0.920 with increasing volume
Entry near 0.900 with tight risk below 0.850
No major bearish catalysts pending
Monitor higher timeframe structure (weekly) for alignment
Use partial profit at 0.950 to de-risk

Tuesday, August 05, 2025

OLAM - 05 Aug 25

OLAM GROUP (VC2.SI) – DAILY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Exchange: SGX
Date Range: November 2024 – 5 August 2025
Timeframe: Daily
Bars Analyzed: ~180
Last Traded Price: SGD 1.05

🔍 MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION

Current Regime: Transitioning from Accumulation to Early Uptrend

Structure is shifting from broad range-bound behavior into a potential trend initiation phase
Multiple signs of institutional accumulation in the 0.80–0.92 zone
Current price testing previous structure resistance turned support near 1.00

✅ HIGH-CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS

Market Structure & Order Flow (Macro to Micro):
- Swing Lows (SL): 0.80 → 0.87 → 1.00 (Higher Lows)
- Swing Highs (SH): 0.99 → 1.10 (Higher Highs)
- Change of Character (CHoCH): Occurred at break above 0.99 level, confirming bullish intent
- Trend Status: Early bullish structure forming; signs of momentum initiation with mild pullback in progress
Volume-Price Relationship (VPR):
- Climactic Volume: Sharp spike on the 0.80 low — large red bar followed by quick reversal, sign of selling climax and institutional absorption
- Volume Dry-Up: Noticeable volume contraction before breakout above 1.00 in July
- Breakout Volume Expansion: Bullish breakout through 1.00 backed by expanded green volume bars in late July
- Current Volume: Diminishing during pullback — bullish sign (sellers lack conviction)
Institutional Footprint Detection:
- Order Block Zone: 0.92–1.00 zone served as accumulation block, with multiple tests and strong lift-off
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 0.92–0.99 after large directional move with minimal overlap
- Displacement Move: Break above 1.00 showed impulsive bullish displacement, shallow retrace = strength
Bar Pattern Recognition (Recent Price Action):
- Engulfing Bull Bar (mid-July): Signaled trend ignition
- Recent Pullback Bars: Small-bodied candles with long wicks and reduced volume — classic bull flag behavior
- No bearish reversal signal yet — price consolidating at higher levels
Psychological & Key Structural Levels:
- Support: 1.00 (prior breakout level)
- Resistance: 1.10–1.14 (next major supply zone)
- Psychological Round Levels: 1.00 (defended), 1.10 (minor rejection recently), 0.90 (prior base)

🔎 INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION ANALYSIS (Wyckoff Lens)

Phase C (Spring): Occurred at 0.80 — sharp shakeout with immediate recovery
Phase D: Bullish breakout over resistance at 0.99–1.00 with increasing volume
Current Phase: Potential test of breakout zone; holding above 1.00 would confirm Phase E (Mark-Up)

⏱ MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE

Weekly Chart Bias: Forming Higher Low vs. March breakdown — transitioning from accumulation
Daily Chart Bias: Emerging uptrend with constructive consolidation
Hourly Chart (not shown): Would likely show micro bull flag / falling wedge

⚖️ RISK-MANAGED TRADE SCENARIO

Entry Consideration: On bullish confirmation above 1.06 or strong bounce from 1.00 with volume
Stop Loss: Below 0.99 (clear invalidation of breakout structure)
Target 1: 1.14 (prior support turned resistance)
Target 2: 1.23–1.25 zone (major swing high and gap fill area)
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2.5–1:3 depending on entry

🔭 FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS & KEY LEVELS TO WATCH

Bullish Bias continues if 1.00 is defended and 1.06–1.10 area is cleared on increasing volume
Bearish Reversal Scenario only valid if price closes below 0.99 on wide-range, high-volume down bar
Critical Zones:
- Support: 1.00 / 0.92
- Resistance: 1.10 / 1.14 / 1.23
- Watch for volume reaction at 1.06 and 1.10

📋 TRADE SUMMARY FORMAT

Buying OLAM GROUP (VC2.SI) because price confirmed breakout above accumulation zone (1.00) with supportive volume structure with stops at 0.99, targeting 1.14 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch: 0.99 (support), 1.10 (resistance), 1.14 (target zone)
Pre-Trade Checklist:

Confirm price holds above 1.00 on closing basis
Entry trigger on bullish engulfing / high-volume break above 1.06
Validate volume expansion on move through 1.10

Monday, August 04, 2025

Wilmar - 04 Aug 25

Technical Price Action Analysis – Wilmar International (F34.SI)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Exchange: SGX
Date Range: Nov 2024 – 4 Aug 2025
Bars Analyzed: ~180 daily bars
Last Traded Price: SGD 2.94

🔎 Current Market Regime:

Transitioning from Range to Possible Downtrend

Structure is beginning to compress after range trading between SGD 2.87–3.08
Multiple failed attempts to break above 3.08 show exhaustion
Breakdown test in progress near psychological SGD 2.90 level