Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02) — Daily Timeframe (1D)
Chart Context
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Stock: Haw Par Corporation Limited
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Ticker: SGX: H02
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Analysis Period: ~Jul 2025 → Feb 2026 (~160–180 trading bars)
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Last Traded Price: SGD 16.80
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Recent Swing High: 17.33
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Major Structural Low (cycle start): ~11.56
Market Regime Classification
✅ Primary Regime: Established Uptrend transitioning into Early Distribution / Trend Exhaustion
The market remains structurally bullish, but institutional behavior near highs is shifting from expansion → supply testing.
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure
Clear institutional staircase trend:
| Phase | Structure |
|---|---|
| Jul–Aug | Accumulation → Impulse breakout |
| Sep–Nov | Controlled higher lows |
| Dec–Jan | Trend acceleration |
| Feb | Momentum compression near highs |
Structural Mapping
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Continuous HH + HL sequence
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No confirmed bearish CHoCH yet
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Latest structure:
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SH: 17.33
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HL zone: 16.20–16.30
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Micro support forming: 16.70
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Trend technically intact until 16.20 breaks.
Momentum Decay (Important)
Recent price action shows:
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Smaller candle spreads
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Increasing overlap
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Multiple upper wicks near highs
➡️ Classic late-trend participation phase.
Institutional players typically distribute inventory here.
2. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Key Volume Signatures
A. January Expansion Move
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Wide spread candles
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Volume expansion
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Strong displacement
✅ Institutional markup phase.
B. Current High Area (Critical Signal)
Near 17.00–17.30:
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Rising volume
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Limited price progress
High Effort → Poor Result
➡️ Absorption / Supply entering market
Professionals selling into strength.
C. Volume Behavior Diagnosis
| Observation | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Volume increasing at highs | Distribution risk |
| Breakouts losing follow-through | Buyer exhaustion |
| Pullbacks shallow but frequent | Supply testing |
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
Liquidity Engineering
Price repeatedly:
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Breaks slightly above prior highs
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Quickly rejects
This suggests:
✅ Liquidity grabs above breakout traders
Retail breakout entries likely trapped above 17.
Order Block Identification
Major institutional demand zones:
Primary Demand Block
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16.10 – 16.30
(last strong impulsive launch area)
Secondary Demand
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15.40 – 15.60
(previous consolidation base)
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Unbalanced move exists:
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15.80 – 16.10
High probability revisit if correction begins.
4. Bar-by-Bar Pattern Behavior
Recent Bars
Characteristics:
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Upper wick dominance
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Narrow real bodies
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Failure closes near highs
This sequence statistically precedes:
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Range formation OR
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Pullback rotation
Not continuation momentum.
Pattern Classification
Current structure resembles:
Wyckoff Upthrust After Distribution (Early Stage)
—not confirmed yet.
Needs breakdown trigger.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Higher timeframe implication:
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Weekly trend strongly bullish
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Daily entering compression
This is typically:
Trend pause before either continuation or medium pullback.
Probability favors retest before next leg.
6. Psychological Level Behavior
Critical institutional levels:
| Level | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 17.00 | Psychological resistance |
| 17.30 | Liquidity sweep zone |
| 16.20 | Trend defense level |
| 15.50 | Institutional re-accumulation |
Repeated rejection above 17 confirms heavy reference level.
7. High-Probability Trading Zones
Long Continuation Setup (Preferred)
Entry Zone
👉 16.20 – 16.40
Conditions:
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Volume contraction
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Rejection wicks
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Higher low confirmation
Stop
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Below 15.95
Targets
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17.35
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18.20 measured move
RR ≈ 1:3
Distribution Breakdown Setup
Trigger:
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Daily close below 16.20
Expected move:
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FVG fill → 15.80
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Structural test → 15.50
8. Institutional Supply vs Demand Assessment
Effort vs Result analysis:
| Factor | Reading |
|---|---|
| Trend | Bullish |
| Smart money activity | Selling into highs |
| Retail participation | Increasing |
| Momentum quality | Declining |
Probability Model
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Accumulation: 35%
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Markup continuation: 40%
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Distribution developing: 65% short-term risk
(Not full distribution yet — early phase)
9. Highest Conviction Observations
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Long-term institutional uptrend still intact.
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Strong absorption appearing above 17.00.
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Momentum decay signals late markup phase.
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Liquidity grabs trapping breakout buyers.
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High probability of pullback before next expansion.
Forward-Looking Bias
Base Case (Most Likely)
➡️ Range / pullback between 16.20 – 17.30
Market building energy.
Bullish Continuation Scenario
If price:
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Holds above 16.20
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Breaks 17.33 with volume expansion
Next institutional target:
✅ 18.00–18.40
Bearish Transition Trigger
Confirmed only if:
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Structure breaks below 16.20
Then regime shifts to:
⚠️ Distribution → corrective phase.
✅ Professional Read:
H02 is not weak, but smart money is currently testing demand after an extended markup. Optimal strategy is patience — institutions usually reload lower rather than chase highs.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.42
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