Saturday, February 21, 2026

OCBC - 20 Feb 2026

📊 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (SGX: O39) — 1D

Timeframe: Daily
Period Visible: ~Aug 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
Approx. Bars: ~130–150 sessions
Last Traded Price: 21.72
Recent High: 21.79

🔎 Market Regime Classification: Strong Trending Regime (Late-Stage Impulse / Early Distribution Risk)

Structure is intact bullish (HH/HL sequence), but price is now extended into psychological and structural resistance near 22.00 with subtle volume divergence developing.

1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure (Aug → Oct)

Range between ~16.20–17.20.
Repeated equal lows ~16.50–16.60.
Absorption visible: High-volume down bars with small net progress lower → accumulation.

Structural Shift (Early Nov)

Displacement move from 16.75 → 18.80.
High volume + wide range = professional buying.
Clear BOS (Break of Structure) above 17.15–17.20 prior highs.
This marks transition from range → trend.

Trend Continuation (Nov → Feb)

Sequence:

SH 18.80 → HL 18.00
SH 19.95 → HL ~19.60
SH 20.25 → HL ~20.00
SH 20.93 → HL ~20.60
Current SH 21.79

Clean higher-high/higher-low progression.

Pullbacks are shallow (typically <38% retrace of impulse legs) → confirms institutional bid support.

2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

A. November Breakout

High Volume + Wide Range = institutional displacement.
Not retail chase — sustained follow-through confirms.

B. Pullbacks (18.80 → 18.00, 19.95 → 19.60)

Volume contraction on retracement.
Classic bullish VPR: low effort on downside.

C. Current 21.50–21.80 Zone

Price making marginal new highs.
Volume not expanding meaningfully.
Slight volume divergence developing.

This suggests:

Momentum decelerating.
Early distribution OR healthy consolidation.

Not confirmed distribution yet — but no longer early trend stage.

3️⃣ Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Behavior

No aggressive liquidity grab yet above 22.00.
Expect stops clustered above 22 psychological level.

Order Blocks

Strong bullish order block: ~20.80–21.00 (last consolidation before breakout).
Major structural demand: 19.90–20.25 zone.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Large displacement gap left near 16.90–17.40 (unlikely revisit unless macro reversal).
Smaller inefficiencies near 20.20–20.40 remain.

Wyckoff Interpretation

Aug–Oct: Accumulation.
Nov–Jan: Markup Phase.
Current: Late Markup / Possible Distribution Prep.

No upthrust or spring yet.

4️⃣ Bar Pattern Analysis

Recent Bars Near 21.70–21.80

Smaller real bodies.
Upper wicks forming.
Reduced expansion range.

This = momentum compression.

No strong bearish engulfing yet.
No climactic blow-off yet.

Market is coiling under resistance.

5️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels

Level	Significance
22.00	Major round number + stop liquidity pool
21.79	Current swing high
20.93	Prior breakout level
20.25	Structural HL
19.95	Previous impulse high

Above 22.00 = potential acceleration zone.
Failure at 22.00 = mean reversion toward 20.90.

6️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping

🔵 Bullish Continuation Setup

Trigger: Clean daily close above 22.00 with volume expansion.

Entry: 22.05–22.15
Stop: Below 21.50 (last minor HL)
Target 1: 23.00 (measured move projection)
Target 2: 23.50
R:R ≈ 1:2.5 to 1:3

Confirmation requirement: Volume must expand.

🟠 Pullback Continuation Setup

If rejection occurs at 22:

Ideal demand zone:

20.90–21.00 (breakout retest)
Deeper: 20.20–20.30 (major HL)

Entry only on:

Volume dry-up on pullback
Bullish rejection bar (hammer / engulfing)

🔴 Distribution / Reversal Scenario

Trigger conditions:

High volume wide-range bearish bar
Close below 20.90
Follow-through selling

Then likely rotation toward 19.95 → 19.60.

Currently LOW probability.

7️⃣ Effort vs Result Analysis

Recent sessions:

Moderate volume
Small net price progress

Effort slightly increasing but result flattening → mild absorption OR profit-taking.

Not yet climactic.

8️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily = strong uptrend.

Weekly (structurally inferred):

Strong bullish impulse since Q4.
Extended but not parabolic.

Timeframe alignment still bullish.

9️⃣ Highest Conviction Observations

Clean institutional markup phase from November.
Pullbacks consistently low volume (strong underlying demand).
No structural breakdown yet.
Price compressing under 22 liquidity.
Early volume divergence warns of short-term consolidation risk.

🔮 Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias: Bullish continuation above 22.00.

Secondary Bias: Healthy pullback toward 20.90 before continuation.

Invalidation Level: Sustained close below 20.20.

📌 Key Levels to Watch This Week

22.00 → Break or reject?
21.50 → Minor support
20.90 → Structural pivot
20.25 → Major higher low

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 3.78%

Arthur Wang Technical Analysis