DBS Group Holdings Ltd (D05) — 1D — SGX
Last Price: ~58.15
Analysis Period: ~Jul 2025 – Feb 2026
Market Regime: Primary Uptrend → Short-Term Pullback Within Trend
1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow
Macro Structure (Daily)
Clear sequence of HH/HL since July:
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47.32 → 49.21 → 51.45 → 53.24 → 54.80 → 55.59 → 58.80 → 59.25 → 60.00
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Higher lows: 49.37 → 50.08 → 51.80 → 52.85 → 57.40
No confirmed bearish CHoCH yet.
The recent drop from 60.00 to ~56.00 did not break 57.40 structurally with follow-through, so macro trend remains intact.
Current phase = bullish trend with corrective pullback.
Micro Structure (Recent)
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Climactic push into 60.00 with expansion.
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Immediate rejection → sharp red candles.
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Followed by rebound toward 58–58.5.
This is typical post-breakout distribution test, not confirmed distribution.
No lower-low structure formed yet.
2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Key Observations
A. 60.00 Area
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High volume + upper wick = supply absorption zone
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Effort (volume) high, result (close above 60) poor
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Indicates institutional sell-side activity
B. Pullback to 56–57
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Volume contracted on decline
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No panic liquidation
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No wide-range breakdown candle
This suggests:
Pullback is corrective, not distributive.
C. Rebound from 56
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Increasing volume on green candles
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Professional response at demand zone
3️⃣ Institutional Footprint
Liquidity Grab
60.00 is obvious psychological level.
Price wicked above prior 59.25 high → stops triggered → reversal.
Classic buy-side liquidity sweep.
Order Block Zones
Demand:
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56.00–57.40 (prior breakout base + structural HL)
Supply:
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59.25–60.00 (repeated rejection)
Displacement Move
Strong displacement leg from 54 → 58 earlier in trend.
That impulse remains intact.
4️⃣ Accumulation vs Distribution Probability
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No lower high + lower low sequence
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No expanding volume on breakdown
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No prolonged sideways topping structure
Probability Estimate:
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Accumulation continuation bias: 65%
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Distribution forming: 35%
Distribution would require:
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Daily close below 56
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Follow-through to 54.50–55
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Expanding sell volume
Not present yet.
5️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels
Major Levels
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| 60.00 | Major psychological + supply |
| 59.25 | Prior swing high |
| 58.80 | Minor rejection zone |
| 57.40 | Structural higher low |
| 56.00 | Demand + pullback base |
| 54.60–55 | Last consolidation before impulse |
6️⃣ Regime Classification
Primary Regime: Trending
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Shallow pullbacks
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Consistent HH/HL
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Volume expansion on upside legs
Current Sub-Regime: Transitional Pullback
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Volatility expansion
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Wider candle ranges
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Testing demand
Not ranging yet.
7️⃣ High-Probability Setup Zones
Bullish Continuation Setup
Entry Zone: 56.00–57.40
Invalidation: Daily close below 55.80
Target 1: 59.25
Target 2: 60.00
Target 3: 62.00 measured move extension
R:R from 56.80 to 60 with stop below 55.80 ≈ 1:2.5
Bearish Reversal Trigger (Conditional)
Only valid if:
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Daily close below 56 with expanding volume
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Follow-through candle
Then:
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Target 54.50
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Secondary 52.85
Not active yet.
8️⃣ Effort vs Result Analysis
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High effort at 60 → minimal upside → supply present.
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Moderate effort on pullback → limited downside → demand absorbing.
Smart money currently appears to be:
Selling into strength, buying the dip.
That is bullish trend behavior, not topping behavior.
9️⃣ Forward-Looking Bias
Current Bias: Moderately Bullish
As long as 56 holds:
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Expect grind back toward 59–60.
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Break above 60 with volume = continuation phase 2.
Failure below 56:
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Transition to range between 54–60.
🔎 3 Highest Conviction Observations
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The uptrend structure is intact — no confirmed CHoCH.
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Pullback volume does not show panic or distribution.
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60.00 is a real institutional supply zone — breakout must be volume-backed.
📌 What To Watch Next
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Volume behavior at 59–60 retest
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Whether 57.40 holds as structural HL
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Range compression before next impulse
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 4.9%
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