STI ETF - 17 Apr 2025

STI ETF (SGX: ES3) on the daily timeframe, with the closing price on Thursday, April 17, 2025, at SGD 3.736 (+2.08%).

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1. 📈 Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: Uptrend recovering from a sharp correction.

• Recent Higher Highs & Lows:

  • Higher highs: 3.925 → 3.979 → 4.000 → 4.012 (top in early April 2025)

  • Sharp drop to a recent low of ~3.30, followed by a rally back to 3.736.

• Trend Weakness?

  • Yes, in early April: gap downs, strong red candles, and increasing volume (possible panic selling).

  • Now: Trend attempting a V-shape reversal with strong green bars and rising volume.

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2. 🔍 Key Price Action Signals

• Strong Trend Bars:

  • Recent bullish bar (April 17): Large, green, closes near high → indicates buying strength.

  • A few sessions prior: Tall red bars with long bodies, closing near lows → panic selling.

• Volume Spikes:

  • Major volume spike during the sell-off (~SGD 3.30) = capitulation selling.

  • Rising volume during bounce = short-covering or strong dip-buying.

• Gap Down: Multiple gap-downs around early April.

  • Resulted in a bear trap as price quickly recovered.

• Reversal Candles:

  • Pin bar / hammer-like formation around SGD 3.30 → classic reversal signal.

  • Current rally confirms follow-through on reversal.

• No clear inside/doji bars recently; action has been aggressive and directional.

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3. 🧱 Support & Resistance Levels

• Support Zones:

  • SGD 3.30 (recent low and reversal zone)

  • SGD 3.560 (Nov swing low)

  • SGD 3.801 (March 2025 low)

• Resistance Zones:

  • SGD 3.850 – 3.854 (multiple rejection candles)

  • SGD 4.00 – 4.012 (double top)

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4. 🚀 Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakdown: Failed support around 3.850 led to a sharp sell-off.

• Pullback: Current move looks like a strong bullish pullback rally.

• Flag Formation?: Too early to confirm; watch for continuation above 3.80 with volume.

• Breakout Strength:

  • Bearish breakout = strong (long bars, high volume).

  • Bullish bounce = strong recovery.

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5. 🧠 Market Context & Trading Bias

• Market Condition: Transitioning from panic selling to recovery.

• Bias: Bullish short-term if price breaks 3.80 resistance with volume.

• Trader Psychology:

  • Initial sell-off = Fear

  • Volume spike + hammer = Capitulation

  • Current rally = Dip buyers, short-covering, and growing optimism

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6. 📦 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

• High Demand Zone: SGD 3.30–3.50 (strong volume reversal)

• Supply Zone: SGD 3.85–4.00 (multiple tops)

• Liquidity Trap: Possible short traps below 3.50 on gap-downs

• Trade Setups:

  • Pullback Buy: Entry on dips near 3.65–3.70 with tight stop below 3.60

  • Breakout Play: Above 3.80 with volume confirmation

  • Avoid: Buying directly into resistance without confirmation

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7. 🛡️ Risk Management Strategy

• Entry Idea:

  • Aggressive: Current level (3.736), tight stop below 3.660

  • Conservative: On breakout > 3.80

• Stop-Loss: Below key swing low (3.660–3.600 zone)

• Take-Profit:

  • TP1: 3.85 (previous resistance)

  • TP2: 4.00 (psychological and historical resistance)

  • TP3: 4.012 (recent high)

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⚠️ Summary

• Strong bullish momentum after a volume-backed selloff.

• Confirmation needed above 3.80 for full bullish continuation.

• Traders should be cautious around resistance and look for confirmation bars with volume.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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