China Aviation - 17 Apr 2025

Chart Analysis for CHINA AVIATION (Ticker: G92)

Exchange: SGX | Timeframe: 1D (Daily) 

1. Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: Downtrend transitioning into potential reversal.

  • The chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, particularly visible from February 2025 to late March 2025.

  • Recent bullish surge in April 2025 shows strong upward momentum suggesting a possible trend reversal or at least a strong corrective move.

• Signs of Trend Weakening (March 2025):

  • Multiple small-bodied candles with long wicks indicate indecision and selling pressure, followed by a steep fall to around 0.725 SGD.

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2. Key Price Action Signals

• Volume Spike & Reversal (April 2025):

  • Large bullish bars with extremely high volume on the rebound from the 0.725 SGD level.

  • Bullish bars are closing near highs, indicating strong buyer interest.

• Engulfing Pattern:

  • Bullish engulfing candle appeared during the recent reversal, engulfing multiple previous red bars, signaling buy-side dominance.

• Pin Bars / Rejections:

  • Several rejection wicks below 0.75 suggest strong demand/support zone.

• Inside Bars & Dojis:

  • Presence of inside bars and dojis before major moves (e.g., mid-March before breakdown, early April before rally) indicating consolidation before breakout.

• Gap Down in March 2025:

  • Sharp gap down followed by selling continuation. However, the area is now being retested—potential for a gap fill if bullish continuation follows.

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3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Support:

  • 0.725 SGD (most recent low with strong volume bounce).

  • 0.840 SGD (former support/resistance zone).

• Major Resistance:

  • 0.870 SGD (most recent breakdown point).

  • 0.900/0.940/0.960 SGD – historic highs and congestion zones.

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4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• April 2025 Breakout:

  • Price broke above short-term resistance with large green candles and rising volume = strong breakout.

• Potential Pullback Zone:

  • If price pulls back, 0.800–0.810 SGD is the most likely bull flag/continuation zone.

  • If holding, could form a bull flag before continuation.

• Previous pullbacks in late 2024 showed weak follow-through, suggesting past attempts were distribution phases.

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5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Current Market State: Transitioning from downtrend to possible uptrend.

• Bias: Slightly bullish in the short term due to high volume reversal and bullish candle structure.

• Psychology:

  • Recent fear-driven selloff created a liquidity grab below 0.75.

  • Current rally indicates greed/fomo buying—potential for either continuation or short-term exhaustion.

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6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Demand Zone:

  • Strong demand at 0.725 – 0.740 SGD as seen by sharp reversal and volume spike.

• Supply Zone:

  • 0.870 – 0.900 SGD where price last sold off from.

• Liquidity Trap:

  • March 2025's sharp selloff may have trapped shorts; recent rally could be a short squeeze.

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7. Risk Management Strategy

• Entry Idea: On pullback to 0.800–0.810 SGD (bull flag region) if price shows consolidation with decreasing volume.

• Stop-Loss: Below 0.770 SGD (invalidates structure).

• Target 1: 0.870 SGD (last swing high).

• Target 2: 0.900 SGD (next resistance).

• Target 3 (aggressive): 0.940–0.960 SGD zone.

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Summary:

• Short-term bias is bullish, but price is nearing old resistance at 0.840–0.870.

• Wait for consolidation or breakout confirmation before entering fresh positions.

• Volume confirms strong interest—likely institutionally backed.

• Ideal setups: Pullback buys on support, or breakout plays above 0.870 with volume.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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