OCBC - 18 Feb 2025

Stock Analysis: OCBC Bank (O39) – SGX

1. Trend Analysis:

• Uptrend Confirmation: The stock is in a clear uptrend, as seen from a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
• Recent Higher Highs & Lows:
  • Higher Highs: 14.55 → 15.38 → 16.60 → 17.59
  • Higher Lows: 13.67 → 14.10 → 14.83 → 15.05 → 16.35
• Signs of Weakness?
  • While the uptrend remains intact, price action is slowing, as seen from the increasing number of overlapping bars near the latest highs.
  • Smaller trend bars suggest reduced momentum, but no clear reversal yet.

2. Key Price Action Signals:

• Strong Trend Bars: There are multiple strong green candles, particularly around breakouts of resistance levels (e.g., 16.60, 17.00).
• Reversal Bars:
  • The 15.38 high led to a pullback (bearish rejection).
  • The 17.00 level showed hesitation (sideways movement before continuation).
• Inside Bars & Consolidation:
  • A small consolidation occurred at 15.05–15.69 before the next breakout.
  • Recent small-bodied bars near 17.59 indicate possible hesitation before a further move.
• Dojis & Indecision: Found around 16.35 and 17.00, where the market paused before resuming its move higher.

3. Support & Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance Levels:
  • 17.59–17.76 (Current test of highs, possible resistance zone)
  • 18.00 psychological level (next key level)
• Major Support Levels:
  • 16.35 (prior breakout retest)
  • 15.05 (strong swing low, previous resistance turned support)

4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis:

• Breakouts Strength:
  • The breakout above 16.60 and 17.00 was strong, with good volume.
  • Current test of 17.76 shows some hesitation (possible short-term profit-taking).
• Pullback Structure:
  • Past pullbacks were small, confirming trend strength.
  • Watching if the 17.00 level holds on a pullback before further continuation.

5. Market Context & Trading Bias:

• Trending, Ranging, or Transitioning?
  • Currently trending but showing some hesitation. Could transition to a range if it fails to break higher.
• Potential Trend Change?
  • No major bearish reversal yet, but watch for rejection at 17.76 or 18.00.
  • A drop below 16.35 would signal a deeper correction.
• Trader Psychology:
  • Greed: Buyers are in control, pushing the stock higher.
  • Indecision: Small-bodied candles near 17.76 show hesitation.
  • Profit-Taking: Some traders might lock in profits near 18.00.

Final Thoughts:

• The primary trend is bullish, but momentum is slowing near resistance.
• A strong breakout above 17.76–18.00 could trigger further upside.
• If 17.00 fails as support, expect a deeper pullback to 16.35.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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