SBS Transit - 25 Feb 2025

SBS Transit (S61) on the SGX, Daily Timeframe (1D):

1. Trend Analysis:

• Overall Trend: The stock has been in a downtrend since mid-2023, with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
• Recent Lower Highs & Lower Lows:
  • Lower highs: 2.65 → 2.63 → 2.64 → 2.62 → 2.56 → 2.55 → 2.52 → 2.48 → 2.50 → 2.46 → 2.45
  • Lower lows: 2.53 → 2.51 → 2.46 → 2.50 → 2.39 → 2.38 → 2.41
• Signs of Weakening Trend:
  • The recent price action is sideways between 2.38 and 2.45, showing overlapping candles and reduced volatility.
  • Trend bars are smaller, and momentum is fading, suggesting a possible transition to consolidation or trend reversal.

2. Key Price Action Signals:

• Strong Trend Bars & Follow-Through:
  • Strong bearish bars in early August, September, and October 2024 had follow-through, confirming a downtrend.
  • Recently, bullish bars have failed to gain momentum above resistance.
• Reversal Bars:
  • A bullish pin bar near 2.38 in December 2024 led to a temporary bounce but lacked follow-through.
  • Engulfing bearish bar in May 2024 at 2.64, followed by strong selling, confirmed the downtrend.
• Inside Bars & Consolidation:
  • October to February 2025 shows multiple inside bars, signaling range-bound trading.
• Doji Bars & Indecision:
  • Several dojis around 2.40 – 2.45 indicate indecision and lack of commitment from buyers/sellers.

3. Support & Resistance Levels:

• Major Resistance:
  • 2.50 – Former support turned resistance.
  • 2.55 – 2.65 – Previous swing highs.
• Major Support:
  • 2.38 – 2.39 – Recent double-bottom area.
  • 2.30 (Potential support) – If 2.38 breaks, this could be tested next.

4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis:

• Breakout Strength:
  • Weak breakouts with long wicks near 2.45 and 2.50 suggest a lack of conviction.
• Pullback Patterns:
  • Trend pullbacks have been deeper in recent months, showing weaker bearish momentum.
  • Potential bear flag forming near 2.41 – 2.45, indicating a possible continuation lower.

5. Market Context & Trading Bias:

• Current Phase:
  • The stock is ranging between 2.38 – 2.45, with no clear breakout yet.
• Potential Trend Change?
  • If 2.38 holds, buyers may attempt a breakout above 2.45.
  • A breakdown below 2.38 could accelerate selling towards 2.30.
• Trader Psychology:
  • Indecision and lack of strong trend bars show that traders are waiting for a clear direction.
  • Fear dominates after a prolonged downtrend, with bulls hesitant to push higher.

Conclusion:

• The market is in a range-bound phase after a downtrend.
• Watch for a breakout above 2.45 (bullish) or breakdown below 2.38 (bearish).
• Volume confirmation will be key in determining the next strong move.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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