Boustead SP - 26 Feb 2025

Price Action Analysis: Boustead (SGX: F9D) – 1D Timeframe

1. Trend Analysis:

• Overall Trend: The stock has transitioned from a downtrend (2022-early 2023) to an uptrend (mid-2023 to 2024), followed by a range-bound movement in recent months.
• Higher Highs & Higher Lows:
  • The uptrend began around March 2023 with higher lows at 0.80, 0.81, 0.82 and continued making higher highs at 0.85, 0.88, 0.97, and 1.05.
  • The stock peaked at 1.05 (Aug 2024), tested again in Oct 2024, but has since been in a sideways consolidation.
• Signs of Weakening:
  • Recent price action (Jan-Feb 2025) shows overlapping bars and small-bodied candles, suggesting declining momentum.
  • Failed breakouts above 1.05, indicating resistance strength.
  • Higher lows remain intact (1.00 support), but the market is struggling to push higher.

2. Key Price Action Signals:

• Strong Trend Bars:
  • March-July 2024: Multiple strong bullish bars with follow-through confirm the uptrend.
  • May 2024 Pullback to 0.93 had a strong bounce, indicating buyer interest.
• Reversal Signals:
  • Two failures at 1.05 (Aug & Oct 2024) suggest resistance.
  • Doji bars near 1.00 in recent months indicate indecision rather than a clear trend.
• Inside Bars & Consolidation:
  • Several inside bars between 1.00 and 1.04 suggest accumulation or distribution.
  • The current market structure suggests a tight trading range rather than breakout strength.

3. Support & Resistance Levels:

• Support:
  • 1.00 (Major psychological level) – Tested multiple times.
  • 0.98, 0.95 (Previous pullback lows) – May act as secondary supports.
• Resistance:
  • 1.05 (Strong rejection level) – Twice rejected.
  • 1.04 (Intermediate resistance zone).

4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis:

• Breakouts:
  • Failed breakout above 1.05 (Oct 2024) → Indicates exhaustion.
  • Recent moves lack strong momentum (smaller bars, dojis).
• Pullbacks:
  • The 0.95–1.00 zone has consistently provided a base for buyers.
  • However, failure to push higher suggests possible break below 1.00 if selling pressure increases.

5. Market Context & Trading Bias:

• Current State: Ranging
  • Uptrend momentum faded post-1.05 rejection.
  • Consolidation between 1.00 and 1.04, awaiting a breakout.
• Potential Scenarios:
  • Bullish: A breakout above 1.05 with strong volume could trigger another leg up.
  • Bearish: A close below 1.00 may signal a deeper retracement.
• Trader Psychology:
  • Indecision and reduced momentum suggest traders are waiting for catalysts.
  • Fear of downside risk below 1.00, but buyers are still defending key levels.

Conclusion:

• Short-term: Neutral-bearish bias (unless price breaks 1.05).
• Watch for:
  • Breakout above 1.05 (bullish confirmation).
  • Breakdown below 1.00 (bearish shift).
• Current Range: 1.00 - 1.04 – Ideal for range trading strategies.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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