Wilmar International (SGX: F34)
1. Trend Analysis
- Current Market Trend: The stock appears to be in a long-term downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows forming over time. However, in recent months, the price has entered a consolidation phase with signs of a potential base forming.
- Higher Highs & Lows:
- Lower highs: 3.72 → 3.60 → 3.55 → 3.47
- Lower lows: 3.41 → 3.07 → 3.00 → 2.99
- Trend Weakening Signs:
- Overlapping bars in multiple zones indicate indecision.
- Counter-trend rallies have lacked strong follow-through, suggesting sellers remain in control.
2. Key Price Action Signals
- Strong Trend Bars & Follow-Through:
- Large bearish trend bars appear around May and November, showing strong selling momentum.
- Some strong bullish trend bars in recent months suggest buyers attempting to absorb selling pressure.
- Reversal Signals:
- Pin bar near 3.00 (August) suggests a strong rejection of lower prices.
- Engulfing bar near 3.47 (October) showed a temporary bullish breakout but failed.
- Inside Bars & Consolidation:
- Several inside bars (e.g., near 3.19 - 3.20) indicate consolidation before a breakout.
- Doji Bars & Market Sentiment:
- Found around 3.12 and 3.15, suggesting indecision and potential trend change.
3. Support & Resistance Levels
- Major Resistance Levels:
- 3.55 (last swing high before strong drop).
- 3.47 - 3.50 (previous supply zone).
- Major Support Levels:
- 3.00 - 3.07 (strong buying zone where price bounced multiple times).
- 2.99 - 3.01 (psychological support, tested but held).
- Reaction at Swing Points:
- Price bounced from 3.00 twice, indicating strong demand.
- Recent rejection near 3.47 confirms that sellers are defending that level.
4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis
- Breakouts:
- Recent breakout above 3.15-3.20 attempted to push higher but lacked strong follow-through.
- Previous breakout attempt near 3.47 failed, signaling potential range-bound movement.
- Pullbacks:
- The downtrend shows multiple lower high pullbacks, confirming a controlled sell-off.
- Recent pullback from 3.47 to 3.15 suggests a retest of support before the next move.
5. Market Context & Trading Bias
- Current Phase:
- The stock is transitioning from a downtrend to consolidation, with possible signs of accumulation.
- Potential Trend Change Signals:
- Repeated support at 3.00 suggests a possible bottom formation.
- A higher low formation above 3.07 would confirm an early uptrend attempt.
- Trader Psychology:
- Fear: The previous sharp sell-offs indicate strong bearish sentiment.
- Greed: Bulls are trying to step in near key support levels but lack conviction.
- Indecision: Multiple doji bars and overlapping price action suggest hesitation in both directions.
Conclusion & Trading Outlook
- If price holds above 3.15 and forms a higher low, it could attempt to break resistance at 3.47.
- A strong break below 3.00 would signal a continuation of the downtrend toward new lows.
- Wait for confirmation with strong volume before entering a trade.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
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