Delfi - 08 Sep 2026

Market regime: Primary bearish trend, now testing a potential exhaustion/support zone

Delfi Limited — SGX, Daily chart
Last price shown: S$0.760, with the session low at S$0.745. 

Highest-conviction observations

• The dominant structure is decisively bearish. After the April peak at 1.250, price developed a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows: approximately 1.090 → 1.020 → 0.955 → 0.930 → 0.895, while lows stepped down through 0.875 → 0.840 → 0.850 area → 0.745. That is textbook bearish order flow, with repeated downside BOS and no confirmed bullish CHoCH yet.
• April’s 1.250 peak looks like a distribution/exhaustion event. The rally into early April expanded sharply with very large ranges and a conspicuous volume surge, followed almost immediately by failure to hold the highs. In the framework’s VPA language, this resembles high volume + wide range professional activity/climax, followed by supply taking control rather than sustained markup.
• The decline became progressively more orderly after May. From roughly 1.02 down to 0.84, bars are more overlapping and ranges generally contract. That implies bearish momentum is less impulsive than the initial reversal, but importantly, buyers still fail to create a higher high. Momentum decay alone is therefore not a reversal signal.
• The current S$0.745–0.760 zone is technically important. Price has returned beneath the January/early-year region around 0.780–0.810 and just printed a fresh visible low of 0.745. That puts the stock in a possible liquidity-grab / selling-exhaustion area, but the chart does not yet show the critical second step: a forceful bullish reversal and structural reclaim.
• Volume near the current lows is not yet screaming accumulation. Recent volume is somewhat elevated versus the quiet July period, but there is no obvious major climactic volume bar paired with a strong bullish rejection. Under the framework, I would therefore classify this as possible absorption developing, but unconfirmed rather than institutional accumulation already proven.

Structure map

The major swing sequence is approximately:

0.780 SL → 0.930 SH → 0.890 SL → 1.070 SH → 0.895 SL → 1.250 SH → then structural reversal

The April–May breakdown changed the character from markup to markdown. From that point:

1.250 → 1.090 LH → 1.020 LH → 0.955 LH → 0.930 LH → 0.895 LH → 0.745 LL

The most relevant bullish CHoCH trigger is not simply a bounce off 0.745. Price would first need to reclaim a recent lower high. The first meaningful micro-structure hurdle is around 0.800–0.840, and a more convincing intermediate shift would require a break above 0.850/0.895.

Volume–price relationship

The clearest professional footprint is around the April rally and reversal. Price accelerated vertically from around 0.98 toward 1.25 with major volume expansion, followed by failure and a persistent markdown. This is consistent with a climactic event rather than healthy continuation.

By contrast, the June–July decline occurred on generally lighter volume and narrower bars. That often indicates lack of aggressive demand rather than aggressive institutional dumping. Supply remained sufficient to push price lower because buyers were not stepping in meaningfully.

The current low near 0.745 should be watched for an effort-versus-result anomaly: if volume expands materially while price stops making progress lower and candles begin closing well off the lows, that would be the framework’s classic absorption signature—high effort, limited downside result.

Institutional / retail-trap interpretation

There are two opposing scenarios here.

Bull-trap risk: any weak rebound into 0.800–0.840 that occurs on low volume and produces narrow candles could simply be a bear-market relief rally. Retail may interpret the bounce as “cheap,” while supply reloads into former support.

Bear-trap possibility: a flush below 0.745, especially toward a psychological 0.700–0.720 area, followed by an immediate recovery above 0.745 on expanding volume, would resemble a liquidity grab or Wyckoff-style spring. That would materially improve the reversal case.

At present, neither has fully resolved.

Key supply and demand zones

Demand / support

• 0.745–0.760 — immediate decision zone and fresh low
• 0.700–0.720 — next psychological downside area if 0.745 fails
• 0.780 — former early-year support, now potential reclaim level

Supply / resistance

• 0.800–0.810 — first overhead supply / former base
• 0.840–0.850 — significant prior swing-low cluster
• 0.895–0.930 — stronger structural resistance and lower-high zone
• 0.955–1.020 — major supply if a larger recovery develops

Forward scenarios

Scenario 1 — bearish continuation, currently higher probability: a daily close below 0.745 with expanding volume would validate another downside BOS. That would expose roughly 0.720, then 0.700. A subsequent weak retest of 0.745–0.760 from below would strengthen the bearish case.

Scenario 2 — failed breakdown / accumulation attempt: price probes below 0.745 but closes back above it with a pronounced lower wick and clear volume expansion. Follow-through through 0.780, then 0.810, would be the first evidence that sellers are losing control.

Scenario 3 — confirmed structural reversal: a rally above 0.840–0.850, followed by a higher low and another advance, would constitute a much more credible daily CHoCH. Above 0.895, the intermediate bearish structure would be materially damaged.

Risk framework

For a bearish thesis, structural invalidation should sit above the relevant lower-high zone rather than an arbitrary percentage. A breakdown entry below 0.745 would need enough room above the failed-breakdown/retest structure, while projected targets around 0.720/0.700 may not provide attractive reward/risk unless the entry is precise.

For a bullish reversal thesis, the stronger setup would be a reclaim-and-retest, not simply buying because price is at a low. A confirmed reclaim of 0.780–0.810, with a stop below the spring/reversal low and targets toward 0.840/0.895, could potentially create a more favorable asymmetric structure.

Confidence: 8/10 on bearish structural diagnosis; 5/10 on immediate continuation

The larger trend is clear, but price is sufficiently extended into a fresh low that a short-term exhaustion bounce or liquidity sweep is increasingly plausible.

Key levels to watch: 0.745, 0.760, 0.780, 0.810, 0.840–0.850, 0.895, 0.930.

Execution checklist: confirm close location; compare breakout/reversal volume versus recent average; require follow-through; distinguish a true CHoCH from a one-day bounce; place stops beyond structure; only accept a setup whose reward/risk meets the framework threshold.

Selling Delfi Limited because the daily lower-high/lower-low structure remains intact, with stops above the relevant retest structure around S$0.780–0.810, targeting S$0.720–0.700 for roughly 1:2 to 1:3 risk-reward if entry quality permits.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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