Old Chang Kee - 02 Jan 2026

• Stock: Old Chang Kee Ltd.

• Ticker: 5ML (SGX)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range Observed: ~Apr 2025 – 02 Jan 2026

• Approx. Bars: ~190 daily bars

• Last Traded Price: ~SGD 1.13

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🧭 Current Market Regime (Lead Assessment)

Transitioning from Uptrend → Range / Early Distribution

• Prior clean bullish trend (Apr–Aug)

• Followed by failed continuation, overlapping bars, shrinking ranges

• Market now in range-bound regime with distribution characteristics

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🔑 Highest-Conviction Observations (3–5 Key Points)

1. Major Uptrend Completed with Climactic Volume (Aug)

2. Clear Change of Character (CHoCH) after 1.18–1.20 rejection

3. Repeated Absorption Around 1.11–1.13

4. Supply Overhang Visible Near 1.18–1.20

5. Volume Decay Confirms Lack of Aggressive Demand

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Primary Structure

• Apr → Aug:

  • Series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL)

  • Clean impulse legs with shallow pullbacks (healthy trend)

Structural Inflection

• Aug spike to ~1.18

  • Wide-range up bar + extreme volume

  • Immediate sharp rejection to ~1.05

  • → Climactic buying / exhaustion

CHoCH Identification

• Failure to reclaim 1.16–1.18

• Subsequent highs become Lower Highs

• Lows stop making HH-confirming HLs

• → Bullish structure broken

Current Structure

• Range: ~1.11 support ↔ 1.18 resistance

• Price oscillates with overlapping bodies

• Momentum decay evident (smaller candles, compressed ranges)

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2. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Volume Events

• Aug:

  • High volume + wide range = professional unloading

• Post-Aug:

  • Volume collapses → no follow-through buying

• Repeated tests of 1.11–1.13:

  • Moderate volume, small bodies

  • → Absorption (strong hands supporting, not chasing)

Effort vs Result

• Recent higher volume bars fail to move price

• Strong signal of supply meeting demand

• No evidence of fresh institutional accumulation yet

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3. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts

Liquidity Events

• False breakout above ~1.18–1.20

  • Triggers retail breakout entries

  • Immediately reversed → classic buy-side liquidity grab

Order Blocks

• Bearish order block near 1.18–1.20

  • Last up bars before sharp selloff

  • Continues to cap price on retests

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

• Inefficient price area between ~1.14–1.16

• Price keeps rotating through → no displacement yet

Wyckoff Read

• Apr–Jul: Markup

• Aug: Buying Climax (BC)

• Sep–Dec: Distribution / Range

• No spring or SOS confirmed yet

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal / Exhaustion

• Aug top:

  • Wide-range bullish bar followed by strong bearish engulf

  • High volume confirms exhaustion

Indecision

• Multiple spinning tops & small-body bars near 1.13–1.15

• Indicates balance, not trend

Continuation Failure

• No flag or pennant with volume expansion

• All pullbacks lack impulsive resolution

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily: Range / distribution

• Weekly (implied):

  • Upper wicks near 1.18–1.20

  • Weekly closes failing to advance

• Bias aligns: Neutral to mildly bearish unless range breaks

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6. Psychological & Reference Levels

Level	Significance
1.20	Major psychological + distribution high
1.18	Supply zone / failed breakout
1.15	Mid-range equilibrium
1.13–1.11	Repeated defended support
1.05	Breakdown trigger / prior reaction low

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification (Technical Only)

Long Scenario (Mean Reversion, NOT Trend)

• Entry Zone: 1.11–1.13 (only with volume contraction)

• Invalidation: Daily close < 1.10

• Target: 1.16 → 1.18

• R:R: ~1:2 (range trade)

Short / Defensive Scenario

• Rejection Zone: 1.18–1.20

• Signal: Upper wick + volume expansion

• Target: 1.13 → 1.11

• Bias: Higher probability than breakout longs

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8. Market Regime Classification (Final)

• ❌ Trending

• ✅ Ranging / Distribution

• ⚠️ Transition risk elevated

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9. Institutional Supply–Demand Summary

• Demand: Passive, absorptive, defensive

• Supply: Active near highs, dominant

• Effort > Result on upside = bearish undertone

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10. Comprehensive Context (Technical Only)

• No evidence of:

  • Accumulation spring

  • Displacement breakout

  • Volume-led expansion

• Market is waiting for resolution, not positioning aggressively

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🎯 Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias:
➡️ Neutral to bearish until proven otherwise

Bullish Only If:

• Clean daily close above 1.18

• Volume expansion + follow-through

Bearish Acceleration If:

• Daily close below 1.11

• Opens path to 1.05

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Bottom Line

This is not a momentum stock right now. It is a range-bound, post-distribution structure where patience and level-based execution matter far more than prediction.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   1.77%