Thursday, July 16, 2020

Long or Short Alibaba

Now you can trade Alibaba on SGX.

  • With a market capitalisation close to S$800 billion, Alibaba is China’s largest e-commerce company, joining the ranks of another Chinese digital economy giant Tencent. With two sessions remaining for the June quarter, Alibaba and Tencent have lodged respective quarterly stock price gains of 21% and 29%.
     
  • The newly listed 5x long/short DLCs issued by Societe Generale & Call/Put warrants issued by Macquarie will provide investors a means to outright trade Alibaba. Both issuers have listed a few instruments at different issue prices (DLC) & exercise prices (Warrant) to offer more choice.
     
  • Both the warrants and DLCs will also provide a means to trade Alibaba/Tencent against each other through long/short pairs trading. The price ratio of Alibaba to Tencent was 0.45 as of 24 June, which was as high as 0.60 on 28 Nov 2019 and at a low of 0.44 on 23 June.

Daily Leverage Certificates (“DLCs”) and Structured warrants (“Warrants”) are financial instruments issued by a third-party financial institution, usually investment banks, and are traded in the SGX securities market. DLCs and Warrants offer investors an alternative instrument to participate in the price performance of an underlying asset at a fraction of the underlying asset price. Any failure of the issuer or guarantor to perform obligations when due (e.g. issuer becomes insolvent), may result in the loss of an entire investment.

Chinese Digital Economy Giants’ – Alibaba and Tencent

Alibaba Group (“Alibaba”) maintains a similar market capitalisation to Tencent Holdings (“Tencent”) at more than S$800 billion, with both stocks each maintaining a 0.9% in the Bloomberg World Index. This makes Alibaba and Tencent the fifth and sixth largest weight of the world index, which is made up of more than 4500 constituents.

Both brands are household names, with humble beginnings. Tencent, was initially funded by venture capitalists and founded in Shenzhen in 1998, while Alibaba was established the following year, in 1999, by 18 people led by Jack Ma, a former English teacher from Hangzhou.

With two sessions remaining for the June quarter, the two digital economy giants lodged respective quarterly gains of 21% and 29% and year-to-date price gains of 31% and 7%.
Price Return
Both stocks reported similar YoY revenue growth for the recent March 2020 Quarter:
 
  • Alibaba reported 4Q19/20 (ended 31 Mar) revenue was RMB 114,314 million (US$ 16,144 million), a 22% YoY increase (click here for more). Alibaba also highlighted that it had achieved a historic milestone in sales volume, with US$1 trillion in Gross Merchandise Value across its digital economy in FY19/20 with a total annual active consumer base of 960 million globally.
     
  • Similarly, Tencent reported its 1QFY20/21 (ended 30 Mar) total revenue was RMB 108,065 million (US$ 15,252 million), a 26% YoY increase, with revenue from value-added services increasing 27% YoY, revenue from FinTech and Business Services increasing 22% YoY, and revenues from Online Advertising increasing 32% YoY (click here for more).
     
While there are similarities in the two giants the Hong Kong listings of the two stocks, e-commerce made up the majority of Alibaba’s revenue in its last FY, whilst Internet Value-added services, through online game revenue and social network revenue, made up the largest share of revenue in Tencent Holdings’s last FY.

Both newly-listed DLCs and Warrants will provide a means to outright trade Alibaba Group in addition to providing a means to trade the two names against each other through long/short pairs trading, depending on one’s view of whether a mean reversion strategy would work well for the pair. The price ratio of Alibaba to Tencent (based on HK listings) was 0.45 as of 24 June (HK$221.4/HK$490.8), which was as high as 0.60 on 28 Nov 2019 and at a low of 0.44 on 23 June.

Reflecting consistency in their recent propensity to swing, annualised 10 day historical volatility of Alibaba and Tencent are also not very far off their 100 day historical volatility levels. Their respective 10 day historical volatilities are currently at 35% and 36%.
Price Ratio
Specifications of  5x DLCs on Alibaba & Tencent

Long DLCs are for investors who have a bullish view of the underlying stock (i.e. the investor takes the view that the price of the underlying stock will rise) while Short DLCs are for investors who have a bearish view of the underlying stock (i.e. the investor takes the view that the price of the underlying stock will decline). A summary of the terms is tabled below.
 
Counter name
Code
Underlying stock
Type
Leverage
Issue Price (S$)
Expiry Date
DLC SG5xLong Alibaba
DMBW
9988.HK
Long
5x
0.50
27 June 2023
DLC SG5xLongAlibaba A
DNFW
9988.HK
Long
5x
2.50
27 June 2023
DLC SG5xShort Alibaba
DCMW
9988.HK
Short
-5x
0.50
27 June 2023
DLC SG5xShortAlibaba A
DWNW
9988.HK
Short
-5x
2.50
27 June 2023
 Source: SGX

Societe Generale have listed two Long and two Short on Alibaba with one priced at $0.50 and the other at $2.50 to provide investors with more choice. While the $0.50 DLC is lower in price level, investors should note that it will also be lower in sensitivity to the underlying stock movement as compared to the $2.50 DLC. Despite these differences, both DLCs will replicate the daily performance of the underlying stock multiplied by the five times leverage factor. Apart from the stock code, the letter "A” is also added to the product name for easy identification.
 
Counter name
Code
Underlying stock
Type
Leverage
Last Price (S$)
Expiry Date
DLC SG5xLong Tencent
DANW
700.HK
Long
5x
5.85
5 Nov 2021
DLC SG5xLongTencent A
DSBW
700.HK
Long
5x
1.015
18 Mar 2022
DLC SG5xShort Tencent
DQTW
700.HK
Short
-5x
0.017
5 Nov 2021
DLC SG5xShortTencent A
DDJW
700.HK
Short
-5x
0.058
25 Feb 2022
Source: SGX (data as of 24 June)

Investors are advised to read the issuer documents found on SGX website here or the issuer’s DLC website here for the full details of the DLCs including the product features (e.g. compounding effect and airbag mechanism) and the risks before investing in the DLCs. Prices of the underlying stock can be found on the issuer’s DLC website.

Specifications of Warrants on Alibaba & Tencent

Call warrants are for investors who have a bullish view of the underlying stock (i.e. the investor takes the view that the price of the underlying stock will rise) while Put warrants are for investors who have a bearish view of the underlying stock (i.e. the investor takes the view that the price of the underlying stock will decline).

A summary of the warrant terms is tabled below. Alibaba Put Warrants are expected to be listed on 2 July.
 
Counter name
Code
Underlying
Type
Exercise Price (HK$)
Warrants per share
Expiry Date
Alibaba MB eCW210105
QCAW
9988.HK
Call
250
30
5 Jan 2021
Alibaba MB eCW210202
VWYW
9988.HK
Call
300
25
2 Feb 2021
Alibaba MB ePW210105
5N4W
9988.HK
Put
200
30
5 Jan 2021
Alibaba MB ePW210202
PHYW
9988.HK
Put
150
25
2 Feb 2021
Source: SGX
Counter name
Code
Underlying
Type
Exercise Price (HK$)
Last Price (S$)
Warrants per share
Expiry Date
TencentMBeCW200703
5Y1W
700.HK
Call
450
0.037
40
3 Jul 2020
TencentMBeCW210202
UZJW
700.HK
Call
500
0.215
45
2 Feb2021
TencentMBePW200703
GDNW
700.HK
Put
360
0.004
40
3 Jul 2020
TencentMBePW210202
PQTW
700.HK
Put
380
0.106
45
2 Feb 2021

Source: SGX

Investors should note these Warrants will track the moves in Alibaba/Tencent shares trading in Hong Kong, hence the market-making hours for these instruments will follow the stock’s trading hours on Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 9.30am to 4pm, with a break from 12-1pm. Note that this will also apply to the DLCs on Alibaba/Tencent.

Investors are advised to read the issuer documents found on SGX website here or the issuer’s warrants website here for the full details of the warrants including the product features and the risks before investing in the warrants. Prices of the underlying stock can be found on the issuer’s warrants website.

Specified Investment Products (SIP)

Structured Warrants and Daily Leverage Certificates are for investors who are willing to accept the risk of substantial losses up to the principal investment amount, possibly within a very short timeframe. Investors should also have sufficient understanding of the product and should possess either a high level of knowledge or sufficient trading experience to properly evaluate and assess the product structure, associated risks, valuation, costs and expected returns. All investors need to be Specified Investment Products (SIP) qualified to invest in these instruments.

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